Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 23, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 23, 2023

Last night in the WNBA, the betting model proved its mettle, accurately predicting both its value plays. The Dream, against many expectations, managed to cover the +16.5 spread, while the Lynx, despite being 6-point underdogs, emerged victorious. An interesting trend to note is the performance of home underdogs, who have been punching above their weight this season. They went 3-0 Against The Spread (ATS) yesterday, bringing their season record to a commendable 56% ATS. However, it's worth noting that this is a 4% decline over the past 20 days.

As we turn our attention to tonight's solitary game, the Los Angeles Sparks are garnering significant interest from both sharps and squares. The initial line favored the Sparks at -8, but with sharp money pouring in, the line has shifted to -10 at Bookmaker. The public sentiment is also heavily skewed towards Los Angeles, with a whopping 80% of the tickets backing them. This tilt in favor of the Sparks can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Phoenix's star players, Taurasi and Griner, both of whom are listed as questionable for tonight's clash.

The Phoenix Mercury are in a bit of a rut, looking to break free from a 3-game losing streak. Currently, they are 4.5 games adrift of a playoff spot. Their season averages of 77.2 points on 44.3% shooting are decent, but their defensive stats, allowing 83.4 points on 43.8% shooting, leave much to be desired. Their recent form, especially against Western Conference teams, is concerning, with a 3-13 ATS record. Additionally, their track record against the Sparks in Los Angeles is dismal, with a similar 3-13 ATS record in their last 16 meetings.

On the flip side, the Los Angeles Sparks are on a roll. They're riding a 4-game winning streak and are clutching onto that coveted final playoff spot. Averaging 79 points on 42.5% shooting, they've been defensively more sound than the Mercury, allowing just 81 points on 45.5% shooting. Their recent form is impressive, especially their 8-0 ATS streak in their last eight games. The Sparks seem to thrive on momentum, as evidenced by their 7-0 ATS record following an ATS win and a 5-0 ATS record after a straight-up win.

Given the current trajectories of both teams, this matchup seems to be a tale of two squads moving in opposite directions. The Mercury, despite their talent, have struggled to find consistency, especially on the defensive end. Meanwhile, the Sparks, with their recent surge, have positioned themselves as genuine playoff contenders.

In conclusion, considering the form, the trends, and the uncertainties surrounding the Mercury's star players, it seems prudent to back the Sparks. They're in a prime position to further solidify their playoff aspirations. Betting on the home team, even with the chalk, seems like the smart move tonight but I won't rush in placing this bet since If Phoenix is healthy I have no interest in Laying 10+ pts on LA.

MODEL Bets:
Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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