Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 18, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 18, 2023

The Aces' recent triumph over the Liberty has breathed new life into the WNBA betting scene, especially after the former's series of beatings. As we gear up for tonight's 5-game slate, there are some intriguing matchups that deserve a closer look, especially from a bettor's perspective.

One of the most notable trends this season has been the impressive ATS cover rate of home underdogs. While it has seen a slight dip from 60% to 58% over the past ten days, it's a figure that still stands tall. Such a high percentage indicates that home underdogs have consistently outperformed market expectations.

The Indiana Fever's game tonight is particularly captivating. The model suggests a backing for Indiana at +4.5 while the projection stands at +2.5. For those eyeing this matchup, a line closer to +6 would be ideal. Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun has garnered attention from sharp bettors, pushing the line from an initial -2.5 to -4.5. If you're leaning towards the Sun, it's advisable to shop around, as some outlets are still offering -3.5.

However, the Indiana game might not be for the faint-hearted. The Washington Mystics, despite being the superior team on paper, have been on a downward spiral, losing 11 of their last 16 games. Their road game record is even more dismal, with no wins since June 22. On the other hand, the Fever, with the WNBA's worst record, hasn't fared any better. Both teams' ATS records further highlight their struggles. While the Mystics should technically clinch this, their deteriorating defense and poor road record make it hard to back them with confidence. The Fever, despite their challenges, have occasionally shown sparks of competitiveness, offering them a chance to play the spoiler. As mentioned, at +6 I am all in with Indiana.

Shifting focus to the Dallas Wings, they're in dire need of a win, having lost 5 of their last 8 games. Currently clinging to the fourth seed, they face the solid Connecticut Sun, who have clinched 15 of their last 22 games and sit comfortably as the third seed. The Sun's impressive 9-4 SU home record this season makes them favorites. However, the Wings' recent ATS performance, especially on extended rest, suggests they might spring a surprise. But given the Sun's consistency and the Wings' recent form, it's safer to back the Sun at home but my number would be -2.

Lastly, the New York Liberty's recent form suggests they could destroy Phoenix by a significant margin. However, after three consecutive games against Vegas, maintaining the same intensity against one of the league's underperformers might be challenging. For bettors, New York at -8 seems a good pick, while Phoenix at +15 offers better value.

MODEL Bets: Indiana +4.5, Dallas +4.5 and Phoenix +12

Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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