Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 10, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR Aug 10, 2023

Sports betting is as much about understanding the game as it is about grasping the numbers. One glaring evidence of this was our last stale, when the model rightfully projected the value on Minnesota, even though my intuition on the under didn't come to fruition. When 49 points came flooding in during the first quarter, there was a palpable realization that it was going to be one of those games. But like any analytical bettor, one game doesn’t deter the strategy; it only refines it.

Looking ahead, the value swings towards the Fever, a team enveloped in a myriad of challenges. The numbers behind the Fever are almost as stark as a winter evening: 16 losses in their last 19 games, a woeful track record at home with no ATS success in their last four games, and the unenviable title of having the worst record in the WNBA. By every perceivable metric, it would seem like an uphill battle for the Fever.

Enter the Minnesota Lynx, who, in contrast, are riding a wave of form. Their road game prowess is evident with 4-0 ATS in their last four away skirmishes. Not just on the road, they've managed to stay ahead of the curve in their last six games, with a 5-1 ATS record. When these teams have clashed in Indiana, the Lynx have come out on top in 5 of their last 7 meetings.

But the number that really catches the eye and which might be the linchpin for tomorrow's action is the nearly 10% EV on the Fever. That's right – despite all the contrasting stats and records, there's a projected value that cannot be ignored.

Moreover, the Fever's underwhelming performance isn’t just a recent slump; they've been in this quagmire for a while now, having managed only 2 wins since June 24. But sports, much like life, is about opportunities. The Minnesota Lynx, while being a decent side, have their own set of issues to iron out. They are still in the playoff contention, and games against teams like the Fever are precisely where they need to consolidate their position. The Fever, having failed to cover their last six, seem like the underdogs yet again.

All signs seem to indicate a straightforward victory for the Lynx, and they're the expected favorites come Thursday. With the line shifting from -1.5 to -4, then dipping to -3.5, is it the moment to go against the grain and fade the Lynx? I've decided to sit this one out.


MODEL Bets: Indiana +3.5

Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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