Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 1, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR Aug 1, 2023

As we head into tonight's basketball schedule, four games are on the docket, two of which hold significant value for sports betting enthusiasts. Intriguingly, the sharps, those seasoned bettors with a knack for exploiting betting lines, have zeroed in on 2 other games promising an exciting round of wagering opportunities.

Before diving into the value plays, let's look at the league's trend. The last update was on July 12th. Here is a recap.

Now, let's quickly peek at some of the league's trends. Our last update was on July 5, and here's a summary for you:

• Underdogs ATS 53.3%, a big drop since the 66% season peak.

• Away underdogs 50.3%

• Home underdogs moved up from 56 to 57.1%

Overs were at 53% up from 47.5% while most of the season it was at 50/50


Fast forward to July 11, and underdogs remain steady at 53.2%, with away underdogs showing no significant changes. However, home underdogs have seen a rise to 59% since our last update. In the past three updates, home dogs have made a leap from 56% to their current standing. The overs are still dominating at 52.7%.

So what has changed since July 11th?

The underdogs have maintained their stability, slightly increasing from 53.2% to 53.8%, while away underdogs suffered a substantial hit, plunging from a 50% success rate to a mere 40%. Conversely, home underdogs are thriving, with a lucrative success rate of around 60%, a one-point increase since our last update. The totals, meanwhile, have returned to a balanced 50/50 distribution.

One home underdog features tonight: the LA Sparks. However, the model shows limited value in this game, leaving our attention drawn toward the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury games.

The line for the Lynx game has remained stable despite garnering 75% of the handle. The stagnant line is intriguing given Minnesota's support. Phoenix, on the other hand, saw the line move from an opening of +6.5 to a current +6 at market makers, making it a potentially attractive underdog pick.

Let's delve into the Lynx game a bit more. Minnesota Lynx, on a roll with three straight victories, are looking to bolster their standings position where they currently sit in the sixth seed, just half a game ahead of the Mystics. Their rivals tonight, the Connecticut Sun, have enjoyed an impressive run with 12 wins in their last 17 games and currently sit as the third seed. Interestingly, the Sun boasts a formidable 8-4 straight-up (SU) home record.

Looking at the against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the Lynx are 10-4-1 in their last 15 games playing on just one day's rest and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Sun are no slouches either, with a 4-1 ATS record in their last five home games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Lynx, however, have struggled in Connecticut, with a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 meetings there and a 2-6 ATS record in the last eight meetings overall.

Even though the Connecticut Sun, a team we've favored throughout the season, could potentially secure a comfortable home win, the Lynx's recent form cannot be discounted. Minnesota, boasting three consecutive victories including a recent road win over the Sun, has covered five of their last six road games. While the Sun should bounce back, double-digit chalk seems to be a bit much.

Tonight's match-up between the Phoenix Mercury and the Indiana Fever presents an intriguing puzzle for sports bettors. It's a classic clash between two struggling teams that have been disappointing their backers lately. This presents an interesting case from a sports betting perspective - when neither team inspires confidence, where should you place your bet?

Phoenix, on paper, is the stronger of the two squads, but they have a dismal away record this season, standing at a lowly 1-12 on the road. The team has been on a losing streak, dropping their last three games and failing to cover the spread in each, with an average margin of defeat of 10 points per game against the spread (ATS). Clearly, the Mercury is not shining bright on the road this season.

On the other side, the Indiana Fever are facing a crisis of their own. With 13 losses in their last 15 games, including a current four-game losing streak, the Fever have been enduring a woeful period. Even their home court hasn't offered solace, with only a single win to show for their eight games this season.

Considering the ATS statistics, both teams have an equally unimpressive record. The Mercury stand at 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, the Fever, although performing slightly better, show an inconsistent record of 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday games and 5-2-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest. Additionally, the 'under' has been prevalent in both teams' recent games, with four of the last five games for both teams going 'under' the total.

Despite their poor recent performance, the Mercury have historically performed well against the Fever, boasting a 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 meetings in Indiana and an impressive 17-4 ATS in their last 21 overall meetings. Furthermore, Phoenix has emerged victorious in both of their clashes with Indiana this season.

However, current form is causing hesitation among bettors. The Mercury are currently without their star player, Griner, and their defense leaves much to be desired, a problem that is unlikely to resolve itself on the road.

This creates a paradox for sports bettors. On one hand, the Phoenix Mercury has the historical edge and a stronger team on paper. On the other, their current form is anything but encouraging. Backing the Mercury has become an act of faith, given their recent performance. However, it's equally challenging to put money on the Fever, considering their own poor form. I'm staying away!

MODEL Bets: Minnesota +11.5, Phoenix +6

Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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