Under the Knife with TheSharpSurgeon (03/27/22)

Washington Wizards +7 (-110)

(A) Golden State Warriors (48-26) [36-35-3 ATS] vs. (H) Washington Wizards (31-42) [28-44-1 ATS]
6:00 PM EST

Play:
Washington Wizards +7 (-110) (1 Unit) [CAESARS]

Model Prediction:

Washington Wizards have a forecast 57% chance to win with a predicted spread of
-1 and an over/under of 224.5

Washington Wizards 113 – Golden State Warriors 112

Vegas Prediction/Line:

Golden State Warriors have a forecast 77% chance to win (Washington has a 23% chance to win) with a predicted spread of -7 and an over/under of 221.5.

Golden State Warriors 114 – Washington Wizards 107

Previous Game:

Golden State Warriors 126 – Washington Wizards 112
(Stephen Curry scored 47 Points)

Schedule:

Golden State: Forth of Five-Game Road Trip.  1 Day Rest.
Washington: First home game.  1 Day Rest. 

Assumed Status:
(GS) S. Curry OUT
(GS) J. Wiseman OUT

Opening Line: GS -7.5 / 222
Current Line: GS -7 / 216.5


Public Consensus:  Golden State 60% / Washington 40%


Summary
: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The model predicts Washington to be the favorite (57%) with a spread of -1 and an over/under of 224.5.  This is an 8-point score difference and a
completely different predicted winner as favorite.

Since Steph Curry being out on March 16, Golden State is 1-4 overall and against the spread.

Golden State has an away record of 19-17, a big step down from their home
record of 29-9. 

Golden State will be entering their fourth away game on a 5-game road trip. 

In their last matchup, Golden State beat the Washington Wizards 126 – 112,
however, 47 points came directly from star Steph Curry, who will be missing in
action tonight. 

Golden State’s next best player, Klay Thompson played 40 minutes the last game, and fatigue for the whole team might be a factor after a long trip on the road.

Washington has an 18-18 record at home, considerably better than their 13-24
record away.

It is possible that with being at the tail end of a long road trip, accompanied by a
poorer performing away record, Golden State may choose to rest their starters and look
towards their next game against the Memphis Grizzlies or simply not be able to
produce at the level the public and/or Vegas may come to expect.

While the model predicts Washington to win 57% of the time, it may be best to
bet the Wizards to simply outproduce their given spread of +7 for what should be
a safer and more consistent outcome.


This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. 

TheSharpSurgeon is currently +8.93 Units with a 43% ROI on a short 9-13-1
sample. 

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