Statsational WTA Model Australia Open January 14, 2024
![John Alesia](https://cdn.sharp.app/user/8925479b-c103-4c68-9e7c-6a6d4c880045.jpg)
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
January 14
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Lesia Tsurenko | -205 | -248 | 4% |
Lucia Bronzetti | 165 | 248 | -9% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Leylah Fernandez | -350 | -482 | 5% |
Sara Bejlek | 270 | 482 | -10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Kamilla Rakhimova | -115 | -109 | -1% |
Emina Bektas | -105 | 109 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Mai Hontama | 360 | 570 | -7% |
Barbora Krejcikova | -500 | -570 | 2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Alycia Parks | 110 | -123 | 8% |
Daria Snigur | -130 | 123 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Tamara Korpatsch | -155 | -148 | -1% |
Jodie Burrage | 130 | 148 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Zhuoxuan Bai | -170 | -191 | 3% |
Elina Avanesyan | 140 | 191 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Alize Cornet | 105 | -668 | 38% |
Maria Timofeeva | -130 | 668 | -43% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Maria Sakkari | -1400 | -607 | -7% |
Nao Hibino | 750 | 607 | 2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Ana Bogdan | 125 | -156 | 16% |
Brenda Fruhvirtova | -150 | 156 | -21% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Liudmila Samsonova | -245 | -276 | 2% |
Amanda Anisimova | 200 | 276 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Diane Parry | 220 | 347 | -9% |
Xin Yu Wang | -275 | -347 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Sara Sorribes Tormo | -165 | -193 | 4% |
Alina Korneeva | 135 | 193 | -8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Caroline Dolehide | -280 | -183 | -9% |
Leolia Jeanjean | 220 | 183 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Magda Linette | 135 | 142 | -1% |
Caroline Wozniacki | -165 | -142 | -4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
---|---|---|---|
Ella Seidel | 1400 | 973 | 3% |
Aryna Sabalenka | -5000 | -973 | -7% |
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