Statsational WTA French Open Model May 29
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.
May 29
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Kaia Kanepi | 360 | 246 | 7% |
Madison Keys | -475 | -246 | -11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Kayla Day | -450 | -136 | -24% |
Kristina Mladenovic | 340 | 136 | 20% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Anett Kontaveit | 105 | 173 | -12% |
Bernarda Pera | -125 | -173 | 8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | -310 | -397 | 4% |
Linda Fruhvirtova | 245 | 397 | -9% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Dayana Yastremska | 165 | 188 | -3% |
Donna Vekic | -200 | -188 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Caty Mcnally | 105 | 136 | -6% |
Ana Bogdan | -125 | -136 | 2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Karolina Pliskova | -150 | -177 | 4% |
Sloane Stephens | 120 | 177 | -9% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marketa Vondrousova | -1600 | -568 | -9% |
Alycia Parks | 850 | 568 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Yulia Putintseva | -205 | -165 | -5% |
Maryna Zanevska | 165 | 165 | 0% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Elina Avanesyan | 550 | 364 | 6% |
Belinda Bencic | -900 | -364 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Varvara Gracheva | -300 | -149 | -15% |
Dalma Galfi | 235 | 149 | 10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Rebecca Marino | 165 | 161 | 1% |
Diana Shnaider | -205 | -161 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tatjana Maria | 340 | 249 | 6% |
Beatriz Haddad Maia | -475 | -249 | -11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Elina Svitolina | 100 | -134 | 7% |
Martina Trevisan | -120 | 134 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Peyton Stearns | -225 | 187 | -34% |
Katerina Siniakova | 180 | -187 | 29% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Aliona Bolsova | -280 | -156 | -13% |
Kristina Kucova | 220 | 156 | 8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Caroline Garcia | -240 | -256 | 1% |
Xiyu Wang | 190 | 256 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Polina Kudermetova | -1000 | -583 | -6% |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 650 | 583 | 1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Petra Kvitova | -115 | -246 | 18% |
Elisabetta Cocciaretto | -105 | 246 | -22% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Jelena Ostapenko | -650 | -397 | -7% |
Tereza Martincova | 450 | 397 | 2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ekaterina Alexandrova | -340 | -181 | -13% |
Viktoriya Tomova | 265 | 181 | 8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Anna Blinkova | -215 | -141 | -10% |
Ysaline Bonaventure | 175 | 141 | 5% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Simona Waltert | -215 | -100 | -18% |
Elizabeth Mandlik | 175 | 100 | 14% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Nao Hibino | 140 | 127 | 2% |
Anna Lena Friedsam | -170 | -127 | -7% |
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