Sharp App: Data-Driven Sports Betting Tools & AI Prop Modeling
  • Login
  • Sign up

Statsational ATP Model March 24

John Alesia
John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.


March 24

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

J J Wolf

290

333

-3%

Andrey Rublev

-390

-333

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Guido Pella

400

513

-4%

Denis Shapovalov

-600

-513

-2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Roberto Bautista Agut

105

-158

13%

Emil Ruusuvuori

-130

158

-18%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jannik Sinner

-1600

-708

-6%

Laslo Djere

800

708

1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Diego Schwartzman

195

173

3%

Yibing Wu

-250

-173

-8%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Taylor Fritz

-1800

-1931

0%

Emilio Nava

850

1931

-6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marc Andrea Huesler

425

435

0%

Tommy Paul

-600

-435

-4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Miomir Kecmanovic

-110

-116

1%

Ugo Humbert

-115

116

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexei Popyrin

100

256

-22%

Botic Van De Zandschulp

-125

-256

16%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Carlos Alcaraz

-10000

-2017

-4%

Facundo Bagnis

1500

2017

-2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jan Lennard Struff

155

190

-5%

Grigor Dimitrov

-195

-190

-1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dusan Lajovic

145

181

-5%

Maxime Cressy

-185

-181

-1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

-155

109

-13%

Brandon Nakashima

125

-109

8%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marton Fucsovics

195

319

-10%

Holger Rune

-255

-319

4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Casper Ruud

-250

-233

-2%

Ilya Ivashka

195

233

-4%

Offers

There are no promotional offers available for the selected region.

More Tennis

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

See More