Sharp App: Data-Driven Sports Betting Tools & AI Prop Modeling
  • Login
  • Sign up

Statsational ATP Model February 23

John Alesia
John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.


February 23


ATP Rio

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nicolas Jarry

-255

-115

-18%

Pedro Martinez

200

115

13%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Albert Ramos

-200

-160

-5%

Daniel Elahi Galan

150

160

-2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bernabe Zapata Miralles

130

146

-3%

Francisco Cerundolo

-170

-146

-4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Carlos Alcaraz

-3000

-520

-13%

Fabio Fognini

950

520

7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Laslo Djere

-160

-162

0%

Dusan Lajovic

125

162

-6%

ATP Marseille

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Mikael Ymer

-105

-147

8%

David Goffin

-115

147

-13%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Hubert Hurkacz

-425

-278

-7%

Leandro Riedi

310

278

2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Grigor Dimitrov

-425

-895

9%

Gijs Brouwer

310

895

-14%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arthur Fils

370

459

-3%

Jannik Sinner

-525

-459

-2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexander Ritschard

800

1700

-6%

Alex De Minaur

-1800

-1700

0%


ATP Doha

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Andrey Rublev

-250

-196

-5%

Jiri Lehecka

195

196

0%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Andy Murray

-310

-684

12%

Alexandre Muller

240

684

-17%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Christopher Oconnell

850

831

0%

Daniil Medvedev

-1800

-831

-5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

215

447

-13%

Felix Auger Aliassime

-280

-447

8%

Offers

There are no promotional offers available for the selected region.

More Tennis

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

See More