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Statsational ATP Model February 22

John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.


February 22


ATP Rio

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dusan Lajovic

-165

198

-29%

Diego Schwartzman

125

-198

22%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jaume Munar

105

110

-1%

Bernabe Zapata Miralles

-140

-110

-6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Thomaz Bellucci

1000

481

8%

Sebastian Baez

-3500

-481

-14%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alex Molcan

100

-115

4%

Hugo Dellien

-125

115

-9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nicolas Jarry

-265

-115

-19%

Pedro Martinez

205

115

14%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Thiago Monteiro

225

378

-10%

Cameron Norrie

-310

-378

3%

ATP Doha

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jason Kubler

400

555

-5%

Felix Auger Aliassime

-600

-555

-1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Andrey Rublev

-350

-251

-6%

Tallon Griekspoor

265

251

1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexandre Muller

270

682

-14%

Botic Van De Zandschulp

-360

-682

9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jiri Vesely

-135

144

-16%

Emil Ruusuvuori

110

-144

11%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

-150

133

-17%

Soon Woo Kwon

120

-133

12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexander Zverev

-150

-158

1%

Andy Murray

120

158

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Roberto Bautista Agut

-380

-281

-5%

Christopher Oconnell

280

281

0%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Liam Broady

900

884

0%

Daniil Medvedev

-2000

-884

-5%

ATP Marseille

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Mikael Ymer

-360

-265

-6%

Radu Albot

270

265

0%


Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Maxime Cressy

-180

-161

-3%

Benjamin Bonzi

145

161

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arthur Fils

-150

-105

-9%

Roman Safiullin

125

105

4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexander Bublik

-105

133

-8%

Gregoire Barrere

-120

-133

3%

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