Statsational ATP & WTA Australian Open Model Jan 21/22

John Alesia
John Alesia

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.


January 21/22

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jiri Lehecka

270

631

-13%

Felix Auger Aliassime

-350

-631

9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Stefanos Tsitsipas

-225

-135

-12%

Jannik Sinner

180

135

7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yoshihito Nishioka

200

105

15%

Karen Khachanov

-250

-105

-20%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Hubert Hurkacz

140

117

4%

Sebastian Korda

-175

-117

-10%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Iga Swiatek

-450

-438

0%

Elena Rybakina

340

438

-4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jelena Ostapenko

310

168

13%

Cori Gauff

-400

-168

-17%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jessica Pegula

-205

-208

0%

Barbora Krejcikova

165

208

-5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Victoria Azarenka

-650

-350

-9%

Lin Zhu

450

350

4%