Survivor Pool Strategy NFL Week 7

After a tumultuous start to the season, we finally had a tame week in NFL Survivor Pools. In the high-stakes Circa pool, just 5 contestants were eliminated, leaving 216 survivors still in the hunt for the coveted prize. This marked a significant departure from the roller-coaster ride of previous weeks when shocking upsets decimated the field.

The big favorites came through in Week 6.  Nearly half the pool placed their faith in the Philadelphia Eagles, a strategy that paid off well. This chalk-heavy week provided a stabilizing effect on survivor pools across the board, potentially setting the stage for more risky picks in the weeks to come. As we turn our attention to Week 7, the question remains: Will this calm stretch continue, or are we merely experiencing the eye of the storm before more upsets rock the NFL landscape?

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game's mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team's future value, so you must adjust yourself.

As we approach Week 7 of the NFL season, our survivor pool analysis begins by examining the spreadsheet with Future Value set to 0, highlighting the teams with the highest win percentages as the strongest plays. This method identifies the Buffalo Bills as the week's top favorite, boasting an 80% win probability - one of the highest we've seen all season. Survivor Grid projects that 32% of pool participants will select the Bills. Close behind are the Washington Commanders, hosting Carolina with a 76% win probability and expected to be chosen by 34% of pools.

For those in smaller pools with few remaining participants, Washington might offer a slight edge due to game timing, allowing for potential hedging based on Buffalo's result. While winning the pool remains the primary goal, strategic hedge betting can boost your Expected Value over time. Consider hedging on the spread to aim for both a pool win and a successful bet. The extent of your hedge should account for your risk tolerance, the number of remaining pool participants, your equity, and the weeks left in the season.

As pool sizes decrease, the "Threshold" column becomes increasingly important. To justify fading Buffalo, consider teams with better than a 73.5% win probability, assuming roughly one-third of your pool selects Buffalo. This threshold decreases as Buffalo's selection percentage increases, allowing for slightly riskier picks if more poolmates choose the Bills.

Looking ahead, these top teams have limited future utility. Buffalo could be an option in Week 9 against Miami, but better alternatives may exist, especially if Tua returns. Washington isn't projected as a strong pick for the remainder of the season, barring continued struggles from Dallas (potential Week 12 matchup). Week 12 also offers strong alternatives, with Kansas City facing Carolina and Detroit playing Indianapolis.

When we adjust our spreadsheet to account for 50% Future Value (FV), we see a shift in the top selections. The Los Angeles Rams emerge as one of the top two choices, replacing the Buffalo Bills, while Washington remains a strong contender. The Rams are projected to be selected by only 11% of entries on Survivor Grid, yet they boast a solid 73.5% chance of winning their game. What makes the Rams particularly appealing is their limited utility for the remainder of the season, making them an attractive option for this week. In pools with a higher number of remaining entries, the Rams could be a strategic play. This selection offers leverage against the field on a team with a high probability of winning, and one that you're unlikely to need later in the season.

Shifting our focus to 100% Future Value (FV) in the spreadsheet doesn't significantly alter our top picks, but it does bring a new contender into the conversation: the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ranked third on the spreadsheet, the Jaguars have a 70% chance of winning their London game against the New England Patriots. Both teams have struggled this season, making Jacksonville a somewhat uncomfortable pick that might churn your stomach. However, in very large pools, they warrant consideration. The Jaguars offer virtually no future value, with their only potential use being in Week 17 against Tennessee - a concern too distant to factor into current decision-making. While the other options this week with limited future value might be sufficient, choosing Jacksonville in a large pool could be a strategic differentiator. It's a high-leverage play on a team with a good chance of winning that likely won't be heavily selected. Although it's not necessary to reach for Jacksonville given our other options, in a large pool, this contrarian pick could be justified as a calculated risk to separate yourself from the pack.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!