Survivor Pool Strategy NFL Week 13

Week 12 brought the kind of chaos that makes survivor pools both thrilling and terrifying. While many of you have reached out to share your pool-winning victories (congratulations, by the way!), others weren't so fortunate. We nearly witnessed even more carnage – those Chiefs fans must've been holding their breath against Carolina.

Speaking of carnage, let's talk about the Circa pool, which is now down to just 54 survivors. The biggest knockout punch came from the Commanders, who sent 33 participants packing with that wild ending against Dallas. The Titans played spoiler too, eliminating 8 more hopefuls with a win against the Texans, while the Steelers quietly showed 3 more contestants the door. And in what might be the toughest break of all, one participant got knocked out before the games even started by missing the submission deadline.

Now, Week 13 brings a unique twist for Circa pool survivors. You'll need to navigate a special holiday format: participants must make two picks – one from the Thanksgiving/Black Friday slate (four games to choose from) and another from the weekend games. Think of it as a two-for-one week, which adds another layer of strategy to your survival plans. Keep this format in mind, as we'll see something similar during Christmas week.

Key:

• Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game's mid-point of the money line.
• FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team.
• Pick%: This shows how frequently a team is selected across major websites, according to survivorgrid.com.
• # Unique teams: If you have multiple entries, you can decide how many teams to spread your risk across.
• Threshold: This is new for 2024. The calculation shows that if you were going to fade the team in question, what would the minimum win percentage of the team you select have to be? This does not consider a team's future value, so you must adjust yourself.

Let's dive into the numbers, courtesy of our trusty survivor spreadsheet. Using a 0% future value weighting (meaning we're purely looking at win probability for this week), two teams stand out above the rest: Kansas City hosting Las Vegas and Detroit welcoming Chicago. Both games fall on the short week (Friday and Thursday respectively), which adds an interesting wrinkle to our decision-making process. If you're in a small-field pool or heads-up situation and have either team available, these should be your primary targets.

But what if you've already burned these favorites?  Buffalo, a team many of us used weeks ago, has emerged as a surprising option against San Francisco. With the 49ers dealing with injuries, the Bills are showing a solid 73.86% win probability.

The next tier of teams are bunched together pretty tightly: Tampa Bay, Washington, Denver, and Houston. Keep a close eye on the betting lines here – remember how Green Bay's odds shifted dramatically last week due to San Francisco's injuries? That kind of movement can be crucial to our decision-making.

For those in head-to-head situations you want to think optimally. Planning for this week, next week, and potentially the week after becomes crucial. While it's impossible to give one-size-fits-all advice without knowing your available teams, here's some strategic guidance:

• If you're in a small pool and have either Kansas City or Detroit available: Lock them in.
• If Tampa Bay or Buffalo are your only top-tier options: Use them now.
• However, if you have multiple strong options available, consider saving Tampa Bay (they host Las Vegas next week) and Buffalo (home against New England in Week 16).
• Washington, Denver, and Houston likely won't have many attractive spots left this season, so using them now in the right situation could be smart.

Remember, while looking ahead to Week 16 might seem like long-term planning, having Buffalo available for that New England matchup could be valuable – but only if you have comparable options this week.

Now, let's talk strategy specifically for our Circa survivors. The big question on everyone's mind: Is this the week to get creative and fade Kansas City or Detroit? Our threshold calculations can help guide this decision.

Here's the key number to remember: 70%. If you expect more than 70% of the remaining pool to back Kansas City, pivoting to one of the teams with a 65% or better win probability becomes a smart leverage play. The same logic applies to Detroit. However, if you think the percentage will fall below that 70% threshold, sticking with either KC or Detroit remains the optimal play.

What makes this week particularly interesting is that many survivors have deliberately saved Kansas City for this spot. But here's the wrinkle – KC also presents an option during Christmas week, albeit a much riskier pick on the road in Pittsburgh. This dynamic could lead to some strategic diversity in the pool, with certain players making the leverage play now while holding onto KC for that holiday matchup.

When we adjust our spreadsheet to factor in a 25% future value weighting, Denver emerges as the third-best option this week. While they're part of that 65% win probability tier I mentioned earlier, what makes Denver particularly intriguing is their minimal future value relative to those other teams, yet they may have the best game left of all of them. A Week 15 home game against the Colts. But here's the thing – Week 15 is likely to offer plenty of other viable options for survivors. (Do yourself a favor and check SurvivorGrid.com to map out your potential Week 15 scenarios if you make it that far.)

At this stage of the season, with pools thinning out dramatically, you're essentially in the same boat as those in small-field pools. The focus shifts to plotting the most optimal path forward. The good news? Most teams showing 65% or better win probability this week don't carry significant future value concerns. This simplifies your decision-making process somewhat – you can focus more on immediate survival rather than agonizing over saving teams for later weeks.

Now, let's shift our focus to those of you in larger pools – the ones likely to go the distance and end with multiple survivors splitting the pot. This is where we can get a bit more creative with our strategy. When we crank up our spreadsheet weighting to 100% future value, an interesting contender emerges: Dallas.

According to SurvivorGrid.com, the Cowboys are already attracting about 13% of picks this week. In smaller pools, we'd typically avoid them and opt for a team with a higher win percentage. But in larger pools? Dallas becomes an intriguing play, particularly because their future value is practically nil.

Sure, there's that Week 15 matchup at Carolina, but you'll have better options that week. Here's my take: Dallas becomes a viable play in two scenarios:

1. You've exhausted all higher win percentage options
2. You still have one of the powerhouses like KC, Detroit, or Buffalo in your back pocket

Taking Dallas now while holding onto one of those stronger teams for later could be a shrewd move in a large pool.  When you deploy that saved powerhouse in a future week, you'll likely be one of very few participants with that team still available.

The same logic applies if Tampa Bay is your only other option this week. With Tampa expected to draw a high percentage of picks, pivoting to Dallas while fading Tampa for a leverage play could give you that crucial differentiation needed in a large pool.

Ultimately, you have to decide how you will play your pool.  Hopefully, you will be around for many weeks with me as we try and survive!