Statsational Soccer Model September 22, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

September 22

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alaves

1.00

290

229

5%

Bilbao

1.17

105

156

-10%

Draw

205

228

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Monaco

1.42

135

129

1%

Nice

1.12

200

253

-5%

Draw

260

258

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Stuttgart

1.90

-285

-160

-13%

Darmstadt

0.92

650

482

4%

Draw

400

370

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Salernitana

1.31

150

156

-1%

Frosinone

1.15

185

218

-4%

Draw

210

240

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lecce

1.23

140

140

0%

Genoa

0.96

200

263

-6%

Draw

210

224

-1%