Statsational Soccer Model September 21, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

September 21

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Sheriff Tiraspol	0.74	700	502	4%
Roma	1.57	-215	-137	-10%
Draw		320	291	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Karabakh Agdam	1.43	145	125	4%
Molde	1.05	190	278	-8%
Draw		245	243	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Olympiakos	1.12	160	227	-8%
Freiburg	1.33	180	143	5%
Draw		230	255	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Panathinaikos	0.91	200	325	-10%
Villarreal	1.43	145	109	7%
Draw		235	250	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Sparta Praha	2.15	-190	-243	5%
Aris Limassol	0.80	550	803	-4%
Draw		340	453	-5%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leverkusen	2.56	-1100	-535	-7%
Haecken	0.60	2000	1983	0%
Draw		1200	813	3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
St Gillis	1.70	-105	-122	4%
Toulouse	0.95	285	420	-7%
Draw		265	287	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Ajax	1.53	160	109	9%
Marseille	1.04	175	302	-11%
Draw		245	266	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Rangers	1.13	150	209	-8%
Betis	1.27	190	157	4%
Draw		240	248	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
West Ham	2.61	-900	-898	0%
Backa Topola	0.44	1900	3701	-2%
Draw		900	1253	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Brighton	2.42	-550	-452	-3%
AEK	0.59	1300	1648	-1%
Draw		700	708	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Sturm Graz	1.09	300	256	3%
Sporting	1.44	-110	124	-8%
Draw		275	266	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
LASK	0.59	800	1269	-4%
Liverpool	2.30	-310	-368	3%
Draw		500	611	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Servette	1.07	300	289	1%
Slavia Praha	1.53	-105	110	-4%
Draw		250	277	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Atalanta	2.09	-320	-258	-4%
Rakow	0.72	900	882	0%
Draw		450	462	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Rennes	1.97	-195	-171	-3%
Maccabi Haifa	0.92	550	501	1%
Draw		350	395	-2%