Statsational Soccer Model November 30, 2023
The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line. Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading. I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently. Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings
November 30
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Fiorentina | 1.98 | -210 | -198 | -1% |
Genk | 0.82 | 550 | 642 | -2% |
Draw |
| 360 | 399 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Breidablik | 0.70 | 1400 | 803 | 4% |
M Tel Aviv | 2.04 | -450 | -243 | -11% |
Draw |
| 475 | 453 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Klaksvik | 0.95 | 270 | 343 | -4% |
Slovan Bratislava | 1.53 | 105 | 100 | 1% |
Draw |
| 250 | 264 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
HJK Helsinki | 1.37 | 135 | 140 | -1% |
Aberdeen | 1.14 | 220 | 235 | -1% |
Draw |
| 225 | 252 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Bodoe Glimt | 2.10 | -220 | -227 | 1% |
Lugano | 0.82 | 550 | 740 | -3% |
Draw |
| 390 | 435 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Aston Villa | 2.59 | -370 | -712 | 9% |
Legia | 0.48 | 950 | 3225 | -7% |
Draw |
| 500 | 974 | -7% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alkmaar | 2.48 | -340 | -572 | 8% |
Zrinjski Mostar | 0.48 | 800 | 2647 | -7% |
Draw |
| 500 | 789 | -5% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Gent | 2.23 | -575 | -329 | -8% |
Zorya | 0.67 | 1400 | 1228 | 1% |
Draw |
| 750 | 534 | 4% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Frankfurt | 1.98 | -180 | -217 | 4% |
PAOK | 0.74 | 500 | 760 | -5% |
Draw |
| 330 | 403 | -3% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Nordsjaelland | 1.20 | 160 | 225 | -8% |
Fenerbahce | 1.44 | 170 | 136 | 5% |
Draw |
| 245 | 271 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Trnava | 1.16 | 370 | 208 | 11% |
Razgrad | 1.29 | -135 | 159 | -19% |
Draw |
| 290 | 246 | 3% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Besiktas | 1.40 | 220 | 138 | 11% |
Brugge | 1.17 | 120 | 233 | -15% |
Draw |
| 265 | 258 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Olimpija Ljubljana | 0.61 | 425 | 961 | -10% |
Lille | 2.03 | -155 | -269 | 12% |
Draw |
| 310 | 465 | -7% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Cukaricki | 1.02 | 550 | 296 | 10% |
Ferencvaros | 1.50 | -205 | 110 | -20% |
Draw |
| 360 | 269 | 5% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
FK Astana | 1.11 | 320 | 257 | 4% |
Dinamo Zagreb | 1.46 | -115 | 125 | -9% |
Draw |
| 275 | 263 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ballkani | 0.83 | 145 | 569 | -26% |
Viktoria Plzen | 1.89 | 195 | -173 | 30% |
Draw |
| 235 | 362 | -8% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
AEK | 0.94 | 230 | 431 | -11% |
Brighton | 1.79 | 110 | -138 | 10% |
Draw |
| 290 | 331 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Maccabi Haifa | 1.22 | 370 | 241 | 8% |
Rennes | 1.52 | -135 | 128 | -14% |
Draw |
| 295 | 273 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Backa Topola | 0.62 | 700 | 1231 | -5% |
West Ham | 2.32 | -280 | -371 | 5% |
Draw |
| 475 | 628 | -4% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sheriff Tiraspol | 0.92 | 425 | 320 | 5% |
Slavia Praha | 1.41 | -140 | 112 | -11% |
Draw |
| 275 | 246 | 2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Rangers | 2.06 | -290 | -241 | -4% |
Aris Limassol | 0.74 | 750 | 826 | -1% |
Draw |
| 450 | 440 | 0% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Freiburg | 1.82 | -125 | -157 | 6% |
Olympiakos | 0.86 | 360 | 485 | -5% |
Draw |
| 280 | 359 | -5% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sparta Praha | 1.14 | 165 | 231 | -8% |
Betis | 1.38 | 160 | 139 | 3% |
Draw |
| 250 | 258 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Liverpool | 2.55 | -900 | -741 | -2% |
LASK | 0.45 | 1800 | 3043 | -2% |
Draw |
| 1000 | 1048 | 0% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sturm Graz | 1.55 | -115 | -110 | -1% |
Rakow | 0.88 | 320 | 407 | -4% |
Draw |
| 270 | 259 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Servette | 0.86 | 370 | 491 | -4% |
Roma | 1.78 | -135 | -151 | 3% |
Draw |
| 290 | 336 | -3% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Haecken | 0.64 | 800 | 1350 | -4% |
Leverkusen | 2.42 | -330 | -429 | 4% |
Draw |
| 500 | 732 | -5% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Atalanta | 1.61 | 100 | 101 | 0% |
Sporting | 1.06 | 280 | 324 | -3% |
Draw |
| 255 | 275 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Molde | 1.37 | -115 | 138 | -12% |
Karabakh Agdam | 1.14 | 310 | 237 | 5% |
Draw |
| 275 | 252 | 2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marseille | 1.76 | -200 | -129 | -10% |
Ajax | 0.95 | 500 | 431 | 2% |
Draw |
| 380 | 302 | 4% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Toulouse | 1.34 | 155 | 165 | -1% |
St Gillis | 1.23 | 175 | 202 | -3% |
Draw |
| 255 | 243 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Villarreal | 1.91 | -120 | -214 | 14% |
Panathinaikos | 0.70 | 310 | 772 | -13% |
Draw |
| 290 | 391 | -5% |