Statsational Soccer Model November 11, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

November 11

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Man United

1.98

-350

-237

-7%

Luton

0.69

900

837

1%

Draw

500

427

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arsenal

2.22

-500

-322

-7%

Burnley

0.67

1400

1208

1%

Draw

600

523

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Crystal Palace

1.39

160

112

9%

Everton

0.92

195

323

-10%

Draw

210

243

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bournemouth

0.87

340

504

-6%

Newcastle

1.82

-125

-156

5%

Draw

285

344

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Real Madrid

2.17

-310

-329

1%

Valencia

0.61

700

1250

-5%

Draw

425

529

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Granada

1.14

155

182

-4%

Getafe

1.09

190

215

-3%

Draw

200

205

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Osasuna

1.38

-105

105

-2%

Las Palmas

0.87

320

363

-2%

Draw

210

237

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Almeria

0.89

320

458

-6%

Sociedad

1.77

-130

-143

2%

Draw

265

330

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Le Havre

0.94

360

328

2%

Monaco

1.48

-130

106

-8%

Draw

290

257

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Reims

0.91

450

388

2%

Paris SG

1.64

-170

-118

-9%

Draw

340

294

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bochum

1.43

155

136

3%

Koeln

1.19

160

232

-8%

Draw

240

263

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Juventus

1.98

-245

-256

1%

Cagliari

0.63

650

1062

-5%

Draw

330

413

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Monza

1.17

150

169

-3%

Torino

1.05

195

220

-3%

Draw

200

216

-2%