Statsational Soccer Model December 2, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

December 2

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Forest	1.32	180	145	5%
Everton	1.12	160	231	-8%
Draw		235	245	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Newcastle	1.49	-110	116	-6%
Man United	1.05	285	287	0%
Draw		285	258	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Burnley	1.47	-120	111	-7%
Sheffield United	0.99	340	312	2%
Draw		270	253	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bilbao	1.61	-185	-119	-11%
Rayo Vallecano	0.88	450	428	1%
Draw		320	273	3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Real Madrid	2.55	-650	-666	0%
Granada	0.47	1200	3083	-5%
Draw		700	909	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Osasuna	0.96	245	295	-4%
Sociedad	1.38	115	116	0%
Draw		215	252	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Girona	1.70	-155	-125	-5%
Valencia	0.92	380	434	-2%
Draw		290	290	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Lens	1.65	-145	-126	-3%
Lyon	0.89	380	434	-2%
Draw		310	292	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Nantes	0.86	295	350	-3%
Nice	1.39	105	107	0%
Draw		235	240	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Stuttgart	1.84	-280	-143	-15%
Werder	0.97	600	440	4%
Draw		400	343	3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Gladbach	1.64	120	114	1%
Hoffenheim	1.24	175	262	-9%
Draw		295	288	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bayern	2.49	-900	-502	-7%
Union Berlin	0.55	1600	2111	-1%
Draw		750	728	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bochum	1.22	160	196	-5%
Wolfsburg	1.30	150	163	-2%
Draw		240	255	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
RB Leipzig	2.31	-450	-353	-4%
Heidenheim	0.68	850	1277	-3%
Draw		550	576	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Lazio	1.82	-165	-190	3%
Cagliari	0.72	425	686	-6%
Draw		285	359	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Genoa	1.26	-110	143	-11%
Empoli	1.03	295	248	3%
Draw		230	233	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Milan	1.91	-245	-213	-3%
Frosinone	0.71	550	769	-4%
Draw		360	390	-1%