Statsational Soccer March 9, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

March 9

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Basel

1.80

-130

-165

6%

Slovan Bratislava

0.81

360

527

-6%

Draw

270

360

-5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Anderlecht

0.87

320

408

-4%

Villarreal

1.61

-120

-120

0%

Draw

270

288

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Gent

1.25

105

142

-7%

Bueyueksehir

1.01

320

246

5%

Draw

210

236

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Larnaca

0.81

500

541

-1%

West Ham

1.75

-175

-153

-3%

Draw

300

319

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lech

1.29

-120

140

-13%

Djurgarden

1.05

340

243

6%

Draw

255

243

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.80

400

335

3%

Nice

1.25

-125

119

-10%

Draw

240

220

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Fiorentina

2.11

-450

-274

-9%

Sivasspor

0.69

1100

1044

0%

Draw

550

455

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Roma

1.25

135

141

-1%

Sociedad

0.94

270

283

-1%

Draw

195

209

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sporting

1.04

270

303

-2%

Arsenal

1.55

115

104

2%

Draw

225

281

-5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sevilla

1.56

-115

101

-4%

Fenerbahce

1.01

330

340

-1%

Draw

265

263

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Man United

1.71

-260

-133

-15%

Betis

0.89

700

433

6%

Draw

425

313

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Juventus

1.38

-170

132

-20%

Freiburg

1.04

550

277

11%

Draw

290

229

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Shakhtar

1.22

235

199

4%

Feyenoord

1.28

115

168

-9%

Draw

255

242

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Leverkusen

2.18

-330

-288

-2%

Ferencvaros

0.71

850

1085

-2%

Draw

500

478

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Union Berlin

1.88

-145

-201

8%

St Gillis

0.72

500

715

-4%

Draw

245

378

-8%