Statsational Soccer March 4, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,

but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

March 4

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Aston Villa	1.30	110	138	-6%
Crystal Palace	1.04	285	248	3%
Draw		235	243	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Chelsea	1.67	-155	-130	-4%
Leeds	0.85	425	445	-1%
Draw		310	297	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Wolves	0.98	225	294	-5%
Tottenham	1.39	130	117	3%
Draw		235	251	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Arsenal	2.19	-450	-316	-6%
Bournemouth	0.65	1200	1187	0%
Draw		600	516	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Man City	1.89	-205	-196	-1%
Newcastle	0.75	550	675	-2%
Draw		350	380	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Southampton	1.19	180	246	-7%
Leicester	1.53	160	125	6%
Draw		235	276	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Brighton	1.42	-130	115	-10%
West Ham	0.96	350	314	2%
Draw		290	242	4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Atletico	1.49	-160	-114	-8%
Sevilla	0.79	425	440	-1%
Draw		270	255	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Mallorca	1.57	-150	-123	-5%
Elche	0.83	475	437	1%
Draw		235	280	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Getafe	1.24	170	140	5%
Girona	0.96	180	269	-9%
Draw		185	219	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Lens	1.31	140	147	-1%
Lille	1.11	200	230	-3%
Draw		245	242	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Paris SG	2.18	-320	-306	-1%
Nantes	0.67	800	1160	-3%
Draw		475	499	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Stuttgart	0.68	475	1030	-9%
Bayern	2.22	-230	-316	6%
Draw		380	558	-6%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Gladbach	1.40	140	164	-4%
Freiburg	1.33	170	194	-3%
Draw		240	256	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bochum	1.49	135	121	3%
Schalke	1.09	185	281	-9%
Draw		235	251	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Augsburg	1.39	130	150	-3%
Werder	1.21	190	217	-3%
Draw		250	251	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Mainz	1.80	-115	-131	3%
Hoffenheim	0.98	275	424	-8%
Draw		265	313	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Union Berlin	1.69	-115	-131	3%
Koeln	0.86	320	445	-5%
Draw		230	301	-5%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Atalanta	1.65	-160	-110	-9%
Udinese	1.01	380	377	0%
Draw		310	275	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Fiorentina	1.00	180	297	-11%
Milan	1.45	150	111	7%
Draw		220	264	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Monza	1.28	100	162	-12%
Empoli	1.15	280	208	6%
Draw		225	240	-1%