Statsational Soccer March 19, 2023
The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from DraftKings
March 19
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Arsenal | 1.94 | -390 | -221 | -11% |
Crystal Palace | 0.69 | 1100 | 811 | 3% |
Draw |
| 500 | 395 | 4% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Betis | 1.66 | -125 | -142 | 3% |
Mallorca | 0.79 | 380 | 485 | -4% |
Draw |
| 220 | 312 | -7% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Barcelona | 1.24 | 120 | 167 | -8% |
Real Madrid | 1.15 | 215 | 202 | 1% |
Draw |
| 235 | 240 | 0% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sociedad | 1.88 | -280 | -212 | -6% |
Elche | 0.67 | 750 | 793 | -1% |
Draw |
| 360 | 379 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Osasuna | 1.10 | 180 | 187 | -1% |
Villarreal | 1.06 | 150 | 209 | -8% |
Draw |
| 210 | 205 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Getafe | 1.04 | 185 | 203 | -2% |
Sevilla | 1.07 | 165 | 190 | -3% |
Draw |
| 190 | 207 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Reims | 1.05 | 190 | 222 | -3% |
Marseille | 1.21 | 150 | 156 | -1% |
Draw |
| 240 | 234 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Strasbourg | 1.54 | 100 | -103 | 1% |
Auxerre | 0.97 | 295 | 370 | -4% |
Draw |
| 245 | 257 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Montpellier | 1.39 | -115 | 130 | -10% |
Clermont | 1.08 | 330 | 258 | 5% |
Draw |
| 260 | 249 | 1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Nice | 1.60 | -150 | -126 | -4% |
Lorient | 0.84 | 425 | 433 | 0% |
Draw |
| 295 | 291 | 0% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Troyes | 1.27 | 190 | 170 | 3% |
Brest | 1.20 | 150 | 200 | -7% |
Draw |
| 235 | 238 | 0% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ajaccio | 0.79 | 425 | 563 | -4% |
Monaco | 1.80 | -145 | -165 | 3% |
Draw |
| 275 | 341 | -4% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Paris SG | 1.96 | -205 | -186 | -2% |
Rennes | 0.86 | 500 | 573 | -2% |
Draw |
| 380 | 396 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Leverkusen | 0.98 | 400 | 465 | -2% |
Bayern | 1.95 | -190 | -158 | -4% |
Draw |
| 360 | 373 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Mainz | 1.29 | 110 | 164 | -10% |
Freiburg | 1.20 | 230 | 198 | 3% |
Draw |
| 235 | 249 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Union Berlin | 1.35 | 135 | 133 | 0% |
Frankfurt | 1.03 | 205 | 268 | -6% |
Draw |
| 210 | 233 | -2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Lazio | 1.20 | 175 | 170 | 1% |
Roma | 1.11 | 170 | 207 | -4% |
Draw |
| 195 | 230 | -4% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Fiorentina | 1.60 | -170 | -125 | -7% |
Lecce | 0.84 | 475 | 434 | 1% |
Draw |
| 270 | 290 | -1% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Inter | 1.35 | 100 | 126 | -6% |
Juventus | 0.97 | 270 | 291 | -1% |
Draw |
| 230 | 232 | 0% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sampdoria | 1.08 | 195 | 209 | -2% |
Verona | 1.17 | 145 | 170 | -4% |
Draw |
| 250 | 227 | 2% |
Teams | Proj Score | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Torino | 0.76 | 380 | 600 | -7% |
Napoli | 1.86 | -140 | -185 | 7% |
Draw |
| 250 | 380 | -8% |