Statsational Soccer March 11, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,

but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

March 11

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Everton	1.09	175	247	-8%
Brentford	1.40	185	133	8%
Draw		210	254	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leeds	1.10	285	252	2%
Brighton	1.45	-105	126	-7%
Draw		280	265	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leicester	1.11	280	222	5%
Chelsea	1.30	100	148	-10%
Draw		260	249	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Tottenham	1.88	-235	-202	-3%
Forest	0.72	650	721	-1%
Draw		370	378	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Crystal Palace	0.78	800	587	3%
Man City	1.88	-285	-182	-9%
Draw		425	379	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bournemouth	0.77	600	654	-1%
Liverpool	1.97	-245	-209	-3%
Draw		425	422	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Valencia	1.23	105	144	-8%
Osasuna	1.00	270	246	2%
Draw		215	232	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Real Madrid	2.38	-425	-442	1%
Espanyol	0.56	900	1718	-4%
Draw		500	672	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Elche	1.19	145	170	-4%
Valladolid	1.11	185	204	-2%
Draw		215	233	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Brest	0.70	600	851	-4%
Paris SG	2.11	-235	-262	2%
Draw		400	486	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Auxerre	0.91	290	421	-6%
Rennes	1.72	100	-131	7%
Draw		250	313	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Schalke	0.95	340	470	-5%
Dortmund	1.90	-150	-157	1%
Draw		300	367	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Frankfurt	1.94	-130	-195	10%
Stuttgart	0.80	310	637	-11%
Draw		270	393	-7%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Hertha	1.16	180	222	-5%
Mainz	1.38	140	142	0%
Draw		235	262	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bayern	2.57	-900	-636	-4%
Augsburg	0.49	1400	2821	-3%
Draw		800	884	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
RB Leipzig	2.02	-275	-184	-9%
Gladbach	0.92	600	536	1%
Draw		400	412	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bologna	1.09	200	248	-5%
Lazio	1.40	140	132	1%
Draw		210	256	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Napoli	1.99	-160	-207	6%
Atalanta	0.80	390	680	-8%
Draw		300	407	-5%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Empoli	1.15	190	205	-2%
Udinese	1.23	145	167	-3%
Draw		210	236	-2%