Statsational Soccer January 29, 2023

John Alesia
John Alesia
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

January 29

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Real Madrid

1.87

-150

-194

6%

Sociedad

0.74

370

676

-8%

Draw

275

374

-6%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Celta

1.16

180

182

0%

Bilbao

1.11

170

208

-5%

Draw

195

211

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Valladolid

1.26

200

172

3%

Valencia

1.18

135

206

-10%

Draw

215

228

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Osasuna

0.99

260

235

2%

Atletico

1.18

110

153

-8%

Draw

215

227

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Strasbourg

1.53

135

124

2%

Toulouse

1.17

200

260

-6%

Draw

250

262

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nice

1.14

185

187

0%

Lille

1.11

155

202

-6%

Draw

235

212

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Ajaccio

0.85

360

388

-1%

Lyon

1.52

-125

-111

-3%

Draw

265

271

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Paris SG

2.06

-425

-271

-8%

Reims

0.66

1000

1093

-1%

Draw

600

439

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Brest

1.50

105

112

-2%

Angers

1.02

275

304

-2%

Draw

250

257

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Auxerre

1.33

140

176

-5%

Montpellier

1.30

205

187

2%

Draw

240

245

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Clermont

1.18

145

188

-6%

Nantes

1.17

210

192

2%

Draw

230

222

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Schalke

1.22

265

244

2%

Koeln

1.56

-110

126

-8%

Draw

260

276

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Leverkusen

1.48

135

154

-3%

Dortmund

1.35

170

192

-3%

Draw

260

278

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Juventus

1.89

-200

-202

0%

Monza

0.72

550

719

-3%

Draw

295

379

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lazio

1.68

100

-115

3%

Fiorentina

0.97

275

401

-7%

Draw

225

277

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Milan

2.04

-220

-224

0%

Sassuolo

0.77

500

766

-5%

Draw

360

418

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Napoli

1.77

-140

-140

0%

Roma

0.88

360

453

-4%

Draw

260

324

-4%

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