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Statsational Soccer January 28, 2023

John Alesia
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

January 28

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sevilla

1.77

-205

-186

-2%

Elche

0.69

550

685

-3%

Draw

300

349

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Cadiz

1.18

185

160

3%

Mallorca

1.01

185

233

-5%

Draw

170

218

-6%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Getafe

0.96

210

256

-4%

Betis

1.21

150

145

1%

Draw

180

221

-5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Girona

0.85

400

548

-5%

Barcelona

1.83

-175

-159

-2%

Draw

320

330

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marseille

1.50

110

126

-3%

Monaco

1.14

235

266

-3%

Draw

270

252

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Troyes

0.93

425

391

1%

Lens

1.67

-150

-121

-5%

Draw

300

304

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Hertha

1.00

260

296

-3%

Union Berlin

1.44

105

112

-2%

Draw

220

262

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Werder

1.17

220

259

-3%

Wolfsburg

1.57

110

117

-1%

Draw

250

284

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bayern

2.19

-330

-263

-4%

Frankfurt

0.78

650

878

-3%

Draw

475

478

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Freiburg

1.83

-205

-152

-7%

Augsburg

0.88

500

477

1%

Draw

320

346

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Mainz

1.58

-145

-105

-8%

Bochum

0.99

360

370

0%

Draw

275

262

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Hoffenheim

1.48

105

154

-9%

Gladbach

1.35

220

192

3%

Draw

270

278

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Atalanta

2.11

-310

-256

-4%

Sampdoria

0.73

750

904

-2%

Draw

400

453

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Cremonese

0.61

550

1038

-7%

Inter

2.10

-235

-293

4%

Draw

340

501

-6%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Empoli

1.16

220

176

5%

Torino

1.09

135

211

-10%

Draw

195

217

-2%

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