Statsational Soccer February 26, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

February 26

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Tottenham

1.32

155

137

3%

Chelsea

1.05

190

246

-6%

Draw

230

246

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bilbao

1.61

-155

-125

-5%

Girona

0.84

400

435

-1%

Draw

270

289

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sevilla

1.39

-125

-100

-6%

Osasuna

0.80

350

412

-3%

Draw

240

228

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Celta

1.47

-150

109

-12%

Valladolid

0.96

400

330

3%

Draw

265

247

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marseille

1.19

170

236

-7%

Paris SG

1.48

155

133

4%

Draw

260

267

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Reims

1.43

110

120

-2%

Toulouse

1.02

245

290

-3%

Draw

265

245

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Monaco

1.52

105

109

-1%

Nice

1.01

260

317

-4%

Draw

255

255

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nantes

1.13

240

236

0%

Rennes

1.39

120

138

-3%

Draw

240

255

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Ajaccio

1.16

125

174

-8%

Troyes

1.08

255

211

4%

Draw

220

219

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lorient

1.67

115

-115

7%

Auxerre

0.96

255

401

-8%

Draw

255

276

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Clermont

1.22

165

170

-1%

Strasbourg

1.15

195

206

-1%

Draw

210

230

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bayern

2.01

-265

-225

-3%

Union Berlin

0.74

600

783

-3%

Draw

380

415

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Freiburg

1.56

115

118

-1%

Leverkusen

1.15

210

275

-6%

Draw

250

263

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bologna

0.87

380

461

-3%

Inter

1.74

-145

-143

0%

Draw

265

328

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Milan

1.51

115

113

0%

Atalanta

1.05

225

296

-6%

Draw

225

258

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Salernitana

1.12

235

220

1%

Monza

1.31

110

148

-7%

Draw

230

252

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Udinese

1.64

-155

-125

-5%

Spezia

0.87

400

435

-1%

Draw

280

287

0%