Statsational Soccer February 25, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,

but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

February 25

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Everton	1.18	155	188	-4%
Aston Villa	1.17	200	193	1%
Draw		220	222	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leeds	1.50	100	121	-5%
Southampton	1.10	290	278	1%
Draw		255	253	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
West Ham	1.43	-130	101	-7%
Forest	0.87	400	387	1%
Draw		260	236	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leicester	1.11	380	300	4%
Arsenal	1.65	-150	100	-10%
Draw		320	299	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Crystal Palace	0.91	360	380	-1%
Liverpool	1.59	-135	-113	-5%
Draw		300	281	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bournemouth	0.64	900	1059	-1%
Man City	2.17	-340	-309	-2%
Draw		500	533	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Valencia	1.05	195	251	-5%
Sociedad	1.34	140	136	1%
Draw		215	244	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Real Madrid	1.79	-130	-179	8%
Atletico	0.74	340	624	-9%
Draw		255	355	-6%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Espanyol	1.28	150	140	2%
Mallorca	1.02	205	249	-4%
Draw		185	238	-5%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Cadiz	1.21	190	164	3%
Rayo Vallecano	1.07	160	218	-7%
Draw		185	225	-4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Montpellier	1.05	350	312	2%
Lens	1.62	-120	100	-5%
Draw		265	287	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Angers	0.89	390	465	-3%
Lyon	1.79	-135	-147	2%
Draw		285	340	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Schalke	1.28	195	165	4%
Stuttgart	1.20	135	199	-9%
Draw		220	246	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Koeln	1.33	130	162	-5%
Wolfsburg	1.25	185	195	-1%
Draw		240	258	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Hertha	1.34	110	154	-8%
Augsburg	1.18	225	217	1%
Draw		240	244	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Werder	1.53	100	117	-4%
Bochum	1.11	245	280	-3%
Draw		255	262	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Hoffenheim	1.06	300	397	-5%
Dortmund	1.92	-135	-139	1%
Draw		310	360	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
RB Leipzig	1.68	-150	-110	-8%
Frankfurt	1.05	350	369	-1%
Draw		300	280	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Lecce	1.18	150	203	-7%
Sassuolo	1.27	190	166	3%
Draw		205	241	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Empoli	0.67	550	935	-6%
Napoli	2.12	-240	-278	3%
Draw		360	495	-5%