Statsational Soccer February 23, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

February 23

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Basel

1.14

140

206

-9%

Trabzonspor

1.24

185

165

3%

Draw

245

238

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Anderlecht

1.35

-110

135

-10%

Razgrad

1.07

300

246

4%

Draw

255

250

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Gent

1.22

-110

165

-15%

Karabakh Agdam

1.09

300

216

7%

Draw

255

227

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lech

1.29

145

163

-3%

Bodoe Glimt

1.20

195

198

0%

Draw

230

253

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

CFR Cluj

0.79

300

481

-8%

Lazio

1.64

-110

-139

6%

Draw

255

307

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dnipro

1.41

125

130

-1%

Larnaca

1.09

230

258

-2%

Draw

230

250

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Partizan

1.27

-110

120

-7%

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.83

310

340

-2%

Draw

255

215

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Fiorentina

1.34

-130

149

-16%

Braga

1.15

340

223

8%

Draw

290

245

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Roma

1.33

-145

134

-16%

Salzburg

1.00

425

279

7%

Draw

280

224

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Rennes

1.59

-140

102

-9%

Shakhtar

1.04

380

333

2%

Draw

310

266

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Monaco

1.60

125

117

2%

Leverkusen

1.17

205

274

-6%

Draw

275

269

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nantes

0.98

360

280

5%

Juventus

1.35

-120

126

-10%

Draw

265

240

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Midtjylland

1.07

330

272

4%

Sporting

1.46

-115

120

-8%

Draw

270

262

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Man United

1.36

125

153

-5%

Barcelona

1.20

220

217

0%

Draw

255

246

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Union Berlin

1.35

130

136

-1%

Ajax

1.07

235

245

-1%

Draw

230

250

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

PSV

1.33

105

154

-9%

Sevilla

1.17

255

218

3%

Draw

260

242

1%