Statsational Soccer February 12, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,

but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

February 12

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Leeds	1.08	290	305	-1%
Man United	1.63	-110	100	-2%
Draw		280	295	-1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Man City	2.19	-400	-293	-5%
Aston Villa	0.70	1100	1117	0%
Draw		550	481	2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Celta	1.06	250	245	0%
Atletico	1.31	115	141	-5%
Draw		210	238	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Valladolid	1.17	175	169	1%
Osasuna	1.05	170	216	-5%
Draw		190	220	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Villarreal	1.06	320	267	3%
Barcelona	1.43	-130	123	-12%
Draw		270	258	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Getafe	1.18	180	159	3%
Rayo Vallecano	1.01	190	234	-5%
Draw		170	218	-6%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Reims	1.55	-175	-110	-11%
Troyes	0.88	475	411	2%
Draw		330	255	5%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Lille	1.65	-220	-121	-14%
Strasbourg	0.90	650	426	6%
Draw		350	281	4%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Toulouse	1.19	205	271	-6%
Rennes	1.64	135	109	5%
Draw		250	297	-3%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Montpellier	1.36	140	159	-3%
Brest	1.24	205	197	1%
Draw		240	261	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Lyon	1.25	140	166	-4%
Lens	1.17	200	199	0%
Draw		245	246	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Angers	1.28	130	163	-5%
Auxerre	1.15	220	207	1%
Draw		245	241	0%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Nantes	1.40	100	130	-7%
Lorient	1.07	290	266	2%
Draw		255	241	1%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Koeln	1.17	160	248	-10%
Frankfurt	1.50	150	127	4%
Draw		240	268	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Hertha	1.18	170	250	-8%
Gladbach	1.55	140	123	3%
Draw		245	277	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Juventus	1.59	-125	-122	-1%
Fiorentina	0.84	320	435	-5%
Draw		250	280	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Bologna	1.43	120	126	-1%
Monza	1.06	230	275	-4%
Draw		220	243	-2%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Napoli	2.54	-575	-750	3%
Cremonese	0.44	1300	3131	-4%
Draw		550	1053	-7%

Teams	Proj Score	Actual Line	Sharp App Line	EDGE
Udinese	1.42	105	138	-7%
Sassuolo	1.17	250	228	2%
Draw		240	264	-2%