Soccer Model For Betting With an Edge May 25, 2024

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!

The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtained the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclosed the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line. 

Naturally, one might bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading. 

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently. 

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Real Madrid 2.33 -425 -417 0%
Betis 0.59 800 1495 -5%
Draw 550 665 -2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Sociedad 1.28 135 153 -3%
Atletico 1.08 190 243 -5%
Draw 230 219 1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Osasuna 1.27 170 189 -2%
Villarreal 1.35 135 160 -4%
Draw 260 271 -1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Rayo Vallecano 1.02 180 246 -7%
Bilbao 1.29 145 138 1%
Draw 225 243 -2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Almeria 1.15 -105 181 -16%
Cadiz 1.09 255 205 5%
Draw 255 216 3%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Juventus 1.58 -285 -132 -17%
Monza 0.78 650 461 4%
Draw 400 295 5%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Milan 2.38 -700 -420 -7%
Salernitana 0.62 1100 1450 -2%
Draw 750 683 1%