Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 27, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however, these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; no movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. I will also share my thoughts on the games.

RECAP of yesterday's games: And we cash in another free play! I got scared when the bases were loaded in the 7 but the Mariners did a great job minimizing the damage.

As we head into the final week of the MLB season, the baseball landscape is buzzing with anticipation. Lineup changes are on the horizon, especially for teams that have punched their ticket to the playoffs. But for bettors, this is the time to be vigilant, analytical, and ready to capitalize on the shifts and swings.

Let's talk Philly. The City of Brotherly Love is presenting an intriguing scenario. While my model is bullish on the Phillies, the squares and the Whale seem to be placing their bets on the Pirates. The early liability at the book is leaning towards the Pirates, with the line moving in their favor, shifting from +115 to +106. But here's the catch: keep a hawk-eye on that Phillies lineup. There might be some surprises in store.

Weather, the eternal variable in baseball betting, is playing its cards again. Boston, Miami, Minnesota and Philadelphia are the cities to watch. In Philly, despite the total remaining static for now, a whopping 95% of the money is leaning towards the under. As for New York, early indicators suggest the Marlins might open around -120 with a total of 7.5. Now, I took a hit with the under in Boston last night, and even though it's tempting again tonight, I'm sitting this one out given the drop to 7.5.

The sharps, those astute bettors with a knack for early moves, have made their presence felt on the Twins and A's game. The game, which opened at 8.5, saw sharp action drive the total down to 8, with some books even offering 7.5. While I'd advise against jumping on the under at 7.5, if you can snag it at 8, it might be worth a small wager, especially since the 8.5 window has closed. The weather, in my opinion, is the driving force behind this line movement. But a deeper dive into the matchup suggests the over might be the play.

The Twins, facing Joey Estes of the Athletics, have a golden opportunity. Estes, with just one start this season, gave up six runs in a mere five innings. While the Athletics might find runs a bit harder to come by against Pablo Lopez, they should still manage to put up a few on the board. The onus, however, will be on Minnesota to light up the scoreboard. With the postseason looming, the Twins will be looking to conserve their pitching arsenal, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair. The recent trends back this up. The Athletics have hit the over in five of their last seven, while the Twins have done so in three of their last four. Moreover, head-to-head matchups between these teams have resulted in seven of the last ten games either going over or pushing.

RECAP: Twins under 8

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