Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 22, 2023
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however, these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; no movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. I will also share my thoughts on the games. RECAP of yesterday's games: The Mets came close to getting us that +154 but they couldn't get that late run to tie the game.
Hey, all you sports betting aficionados! If you're still reeling from last night's NFL action where the over didn't quite pan out, don't sweat it. We've got a stacked Friday night of college football and MLB action that's ripe for the picking. So, let's dive in, shall we?
College Football: Where the Sharps Play
First off, let's talk about Friday night college football. Man, I love it. The lines have settled in, and bookmakers like Circa are letting the big dogs eat with almost fully opened max bet limits.
Over at Purdue, the line's been dancing like a TikTok star. With a whopping 75% of the handle on Purdue, the line's shifted from +7 to +5.5. It even flirted with +5 before some Wisconsin love nudged it back up. We've got two sets of sharps here: one set that pounced on Purdue at +7 and +6.5, and another that's vibing with Wisconsin at -5.
San Diego State's also making waves. They opened as a +7.5 underdog at home, but with 65% of the handle, that line's slimmed down to +6. The sharps are divided, but let's just say the San Diego State crew has been flexing harder, especially when the line was at +7.
Air Force? Oh, they've been the darling of the sharp report since Monday. The line's ballooned from -3 to -6, but the handle's balanced out from being 80% on the favorite to a more even 51%. Looks like the book found its equilibrium on this one.
MLB: When Weather Plays Spoiler
Switching gears to baseball, Mother Nature's acting all moody, making the unders in New York and Boston look tempting. In the Big Apple, the total's dipped from 8.5 to 8, and I'm still digging it. With temps in the mid-60s and an east wind, runs could be scarce. Boston's got a similar vibe but the total's holding steady at 9. The sharps are all over the under, but the public's leaning 85% on the over. Time to zig while others zag?
The Whale Watch
In other MLB action, Arizona's line did a full 180, opening at +110 and flipping to -106 overnight. And get this, it's backed by 88% of the handle. But the real whale alert is on San Diego. That line's surged from -148 to -167, with a staggering 90% of the handle on the Padres.
Last but not least, let's talk Oakland. The Tigers opened at -125 at BetOnline and have clawed their way to -142. If you're wondering where the money's at, it's all growling for the Tigers.
The Pitchers: Touki Toussaint vs. Chris Sale
First up, the White Sox are rolling out right-hander Touki Toussaint. Now, don't let his 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP fool you. This guy's been dealing lately, giving up three runs or less in four of his last five starts. Sure, he had that one-inning, eight-run meltdown against the Royals, but hey, even LeBron misses a free throw now and then. The point is, Toussaint's got momentum on his side, and let's be real, the White Sox aren't playing for much else this season. They're so far out of the playoff picture, they need a telescope to see it.
On the flip side, we've got Chris Sale for the Red Sox. This dude's been stingy, giving up two or fewer runs in eight of his last 11 starts. But hold up, he's also been a bit generous with the walks, issuing two in four straight outings. Sale's been given some extra beauty sleep with two days' rest before his last start against Toronto, and it paid off. He's sitting on a 4.66 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 92.2 innings. But let's not sugarcoat it; Boston's postseason dreams are fading faster than a pair of cheap jeans, sitting 8.5 games back of the wild-card spot.
The Pick: Under the Projected Number
So, what's the play here? Toussaint's last outing was a thing of beauty, picking up a win in a 7-6 victory over the Twins. The guy was a strike machine, racking up 32 called or swinging strikes on just 74 pitches. That's some serious efficiency, folks.
Now, I know what you're thinking. Sale's been a bit shaky, and the White Sox could put some runs on the board. But here's the kicker: I'm leaning towards the under on this one. Both pitchers have shown they can keep runs at a premium, and with both teams essentially playing for pride, I expect a duel that's more focused on individual performances than lighting up the scoreboard. Lastly, we have the weather on our side!
RECAP: Boston under 9
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