Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps September 21, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however, these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; no movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. I will also share my thoughts on the games.

RECAP of yesterday's games: We got another winner last night with the under cashing between the Jays and Yankees!

As the sun sets on another day, sports fans and bettors alike are gearing up for an action-packed evening featuring NFL, college football, and MLB games. While football might be stealing the spotlight, let's not overlook the baseball action, even if tonight's slate is a bit leaner than usual. Here's a deep dive into the market movers across these sports, culminating in our game of the day.

NFL: Giants vs. Niners Showdown

The NFL is offering a tantalizing matchup between the Giants and the 49ers. For those who've been keeping an eye on my channel, you've seen the line for this game seesaw like a playground. Opening at Niners -9.5, the line surged to -11, retreated to -10, and is now sitting at -10.5. The Giants are getting no love at the book, with the Niners commanding a whopping 80% of both the handle and the tickets. The total points have also seen a downward trend, dropping from an initial 45 to 43.5. This suggests that bettors are expecting a lower-scoring affair, possibly due to the Giants' lackluster offense.

College Football: Coastal Carolina's Balancing Act

In the college football arena, Coastal Carolina has been the talk of the town. Opening at -7.5 at market maker BetOnline, the line has been oscillating between -6.5 and -7 since Sunday. This indicates that the bookmakers are still trying to find equilibrium in the handle. Interestingly, the real action is on the total points, where we have a clash of the sharps. One set is bullish on the over at 60.5, while the other is leaning toward the under at 63. This divergence among sharp bettors makes the total a fascinating aspect to watch.

MLB: Quiet but Noteworthy Movements

Switching gears to baseball, the market has been relatively stable, but there are a couple of noteworthy movements. In Philadelphia, the under has shifted from an opening of 9 to 8.5, possibly due to pitching matchups or weather conditions. Speaking of weather, it's not looking too friendly for high-scoring games in several cities, including Washington, New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Chicago. This could favor the under in those matchups.

In New York, the Yankees' bats seem to have gone into hibernation. With ace pitchers Berrios and Cole set to duel, the total has been adjusted downward from 7.5 to 7. This is a clear indication that a pitchers' duel is expected, and runs will be at a premium.

As the MLB season winds down, every game becomes a high-stakes affair, especially for teams jockeying for playoff positioning or simply trying to end the season on a high note. Tonight's matchup between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies is one such game that has caught the attention of sharp bettors. Let's dissect this intriguing contest from a sports betting perspective.

The Sharp Angle on the Mets

The Mets, despite facing a challenging opponent in the Phillies, have been the subject of sharp interest. The moneyline opened at +158 for the Mets, but sharp action has since driven it down to +140. This is a significant move and indicates that the Mets' recent offensive surge has not gone unnoticed by those in the know.

The Pitching Matchup: Peterson vs. Suarez

David Peterson will be on the mound for the Mets, and while his 3-8 record and 5.22 ERA might not inspire confidence, he's been showing signs of improvement. In his last outing, he pitched 5.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs. The start before that? Three earned runs. Peterson has spent most of the season in the bullpen but seems to be growing more comfortable in a starting role. This will be his first start against the Phillies this season, which could give him the element of surprise.

On the other side, Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies. His 3-6 record might raise eyebrows, but his 3.80 ERA tells a different story. Suarez has been in excellent form lately, allowing more than two runs only once in his last six starts. When he faced the Mets earlier this season, he pitched 6.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs. If he can replicate that performance, the Phillies could be in a strong position.

The Intangibles: Travel, Consistency, and Lineup Depth

The Mets are coming off a series in Miami and will have to travel to Philadelphia, which could add a layer of complexity to their preparation. They've struggled with consistency this season, both in terms of pitching and offensive production. While their lineup has some big names, they haven't quite clicked as a unit.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have the luxury of leaning on Suarez, who is arguably pitching the best baseball of his season. Their lineup is top-heavy, but they've shown that when even one or two players from the bench step up, it's usually enough to secure a win.

The Final Word

Given all these factors, it's easy to see why the Phillies are favored. Suarez's recent form and previous success against the Mets make him a key player in this matchup. However, the sharp money on the Mets suggests that this game might be closer than it appears on paper. Peterson's recent outings indicate that he's settling into his role as a starter, and if the Mets' offense can continue its hot streak, they could very well pull off an upset.

RECAP: NY Mets +147

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