Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 25, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We had a winner yesterday with Liberty going over 60 in the game total.

The NBA continues to be a betting frenzy for enthusiasts, with a plethora of games today. But it's not just about the games themselves; it's about understanding the dynamics behind the betting lines, and how they shift based on various factors, including sharp action. Today, while the NBA takes the center stage, we also have an NHL game and two college games to factor in.

A Tidal Wave of Sharp Action

Up until last night, there was a significant amount of sharp action in the NBA betting markets. For those unfamiliar, "sharp" action refers to wagers made by professional bettors or 'sharps', who are often more informed than the general betting public. Their actions can greatly influence the line movements in sports betting markets.

However, a peculiar development occurred overnight: many sharps hit the other side of the current sharp positions., resulting in the elimination of many spots on the sharp report. This is a testament to the volatile nature of betting markets, especially in the first week or so. Almost every NBA game witnessed a line movement, and some of these shifts were quite dramatic.

Spotlight on Notable Games

The Celtics vs. Knicks game stands out this morning. Drawing almost double the bets compared to the next contender, the game's line has been experiencing significant movement. With the Celtics opening as a 2.5 favorite, the line has now shifted to -4 at market makers, bolstered by 77% of the handle.

Close behind in terms of wagering volume is the game in Indiana. Interestingly, despite Indiana having the backing of 90% of the handle, the line dropped from -7.5 to -6. This stark movement signals that sharps are heavily leaning towards the Wizards.

The betting dynamics for other games are equally captivating. In the Raptors game, while my model had them at -1 (which is where the line originally opened), Minnesota has since taken the lead, shifting to -1. Memphis, on the other hand, has witnessed a rollercoaster of line movements. Initially opening at -2, the line plummeted to a pick, with some books now listing Memphis at -1.

The Totals That Took a Hit

If line movements can be turbulent, total points (often referred to simply as 'totals') aren't far behind. In Indiana, we saw the total surge from 231 to a projected settling point of around 235. Miami, in contrast, witnessed a drop from 222 to an anticipated settling number of 219. The most pronounced shift was observed in Orlando, with the total plummeting from 227.5 to 220.

Similarly, in Chicago, the total descended from 230.5 to 227. And in Memphis, not just the line but also the total has been dancing, moving from an opening of 229.5 to its current 225 at BetOnline.

To round off, the sharp report currently flags three totals with heavily one-sided sharp action.

The dance of numbers, the tug of war between public sentiment and sharp action, and the unpredictable nature of line movements make sports betting an intriguing arena. As the NBA season progresses, it will be fascinating to monitor these shifts and understand the underlying dynamics. For now, we just take notes and try to understand the moves.

The focus of today's sharp report directs us towards the Miami game. For those closely monitoring, the under 221 has taken the limelight. Although the total has seen a minor drop, settling at 219.5, it's a figure that's still worth a punt.

Now, diving straight into the core of the matter - is there value on this under? The straightforward answer might be 'no'. However, aligning with the sharps, I find myself nodding in agreement.

The reason behind this inclination largely stems from the anticipated performance of the two teams involved. I have faith in the Heat's offense, believing they will shine brightly come Wednesday night. But the big question mark hangs over the Pistons - will they be able to pull their weight to meet the total?

Casting our eyes back, the Pistons showcased a less-than-satisfactory record on the defensive end last year. But their woes didn't end there. They mirrored this subpar performance offensively. In terms of offensive efficiency, Detroit held a lowly 27th rank, managing to scrape together only 107.8 points per 100 possessions as per Dunks and Threes website. And while one might be tempted to think that Miami would far outshine them, the reality tells a different tale. The Heat were marginally better but still languished at the 25th spot, recording an average of 110.4 and terrible at covering the number.

Adding another layer of complexity to the mix, Miami's playstyle from last season was characterized by a slower pace. They held the title of being the second-slowest team in the Association. The only team they managed to outpace was Cleveland.

Given this backdrop, it's reasonable to expect that while the Heat might clinch a victory, the game might not be a high-scoring spectacle. With all factors laid out, I'm placing my bet on a lower-scoring encounter and thus, taking the under for this game.

RECAP: Miami under 219.5

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