Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 7, 2023.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We couldn't ask for more of a start in CBB. We went 2-0 or 3-0 if you had the balls to take that big line in Tennessee.

In an unusual turn of events, the NBA has left the sports schedule bare for today. While basketball fans might find the break strange, it does present a refreshing opportunity to dive into the bustling activities of other leagues, including a full NHL lineup, some college football (CFB), and college basketball (CBB).

NHL Spotlight: Tampa Bay Lightning's Tough Schedule

The NHL's offering is headlined by the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are the lone team dealing with the rigors of back-to-back games. Still licking their wounds after squandering a 4-1 lead to Toronto, they have barely had time to rest before heading to Montreal for their next challenge. This whirlwind schedule has caused bettors to rethink their stance, with money flowing towards the Canadiens. The odds have reflected this shift, seeing Tampa's opening -150 odds dwindle to -138. It's a trend worth watching, as the Lightning battle fatigue against a hopeful Habs squad.

The Curious Case of the Philadelphia Flyers

Another anomaly in the NHL slate is the Philadelphia Flyers' fixture. Uncharacteristically, it's attracted a significant betting volume, which is a rarity for late games. The Flyers are up against the San Jose Sharks, a team that's been defensively porous, allowing 20 goals across their last two outings. This vulnerability hasn't gone unnoticed, as the Flyers opened at a surprisingly modest -185. Considering they're commanding 90% of both the handle and tickets, a shift past -200 is anticipated, potentially closing around -220.

College Basketball: Sharps Stir the Pot

The college basketball scene has been relatively stable today, a stark contrast to yesterday's flurry of line movements. Nonetheless, sharps have earmarked 10 spots they're particularly keen on, with the lines beginning to shift post-announcement. A standout in today's slate is the action on Cal Irvine, where sharp betting shifted the line from -1 to a uniform -4.

College Football: Reading Between the Lines

In the realm of college football, there hasn't been much noise, but there are whispers of strategic plays from the sharps. The attention is on Buffalo and the under in the Northern Illinois game. The total for Northern Illinois fluttered from an opening of 44 to 42.5 and then reverted to 44. This reversal is puzzling, given the overwhelming 80% of the handle is leaning towards the under.

Buffalo's line has stayed consistent, maintaining its status as a 7-point underdog across most sportsbooks. However, there have been fleeting moments of change, like at Circa, where the line edged to +7.5 before reverting, and at BetOnline, where the juice at -7 hints at a potential -7.5 for Ohio.

Cal Irvine & North Texas:

Today we will take a look at the North Texas and Cal Irvine's games. Both these teams feature on the sharp report this morning. My projections on North Texas is around -8 therefore I have some interest at -4. However, in San Jose State, my model shows that the game should be closer to a pick but Cal Irvine is moving up to -4.5 while it opened at +1.

Starting on the West Coast, the UC Irvine Anteaters are strutting into the season with a swagger that only comes from a team well-acquainted with victory. Last season's respectable offensive clip of over 72 points per game was no fluke, buoyed by a tenacious offensive rebounding and the savvy ball movement that kept defenses guessing. Even though they're hitting the hardwood without their two top scorers this time around, they've got depth in spades and experience in critical positions.

The Anteaters' opponents, the San Jose State Spartans, might've had a defensive edge last season, but with three of their starting lineup gone, depth is a pressing issue. Offensively, they're not looking much better – they've got some scoring voids left by departed talents, and against Irvine's veteran group, that spells trouble. Betting circles are abuzz, with the needle tilting decidedly in favor of Irvine to cover the spread in this opening skirmish.

Moving over to the Lone Star State, North Texas stands as a testament to the adage 'defense wins games'. They've shed a good portion of their scoring prowess but have compensated by doubling down on a defensive philosophy that's nothing short of a stranglehold. With new transfers in the mix, there's an element of the unknown, but the Mean Green has the home-court advantage in The Super Pit, a fortress where they can deploy their defense-first ethos effectively against Northern Iowa.

The Panthers from Northern Iowa bring a depth to the table that could give the Mean Green's defense a run for their money. They've got sharpshooters like Born, who's not just willing but eager to take the long-range shot. They're a team that's not easily intimidated on the road, and with the return of key players, their offensive productivity is tipped to surge.

In the trenches of sports betting, the spread is more than just a number – it's a narrative. For the Anteaters, it's about continuity and leveraging experience. For the Mean Green, it's about a staunch defense that doesn't know how to quit. The spread reflects the anticipation of a UC Irvine triumph, with the Anteaters expected to impose their game and dictate the pace against the transitioning Spartans.

For North Texas and Northern Iowa, it's a tale of transition versus experience. The Mean Green are under new leadership, stepping into uncharted territory, which may spell an early-season adjustment period. Conversely, the Panthers, with their potent offense and depth, could very well exploit North Texas's inexperience and offensive gaps to cover the spread.

The smart money seems to be riding on the Anteaters to capitalize on their depth and experience, potentially covering the spread with ease against the Spartans. However, for North Texas, despite their defensive prowess, the loss of offensive output from last season may leave them vulnerable to a Panthers team ready to pounce. Bettors may find value in backing UC Irvine's proven system against San Jose State's identity search and siding with Northern Iowa's depth and scoring potential to challenge North Texas's formidable defense.

RECAP: UC Irvine -4, North Texas -4

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