Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 29, 2023

6 months ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: When writing this article, OKC was up by 8 at halftime.

Tonight's NHL action is limited but significant, with only three games scheduled. Among them, the Montreal Canadiens (Habs) and the Columbus Blue Jackets are set to clash. Betting trends have shifted slightly in favor of Columbus. Initially opening at -125, the odds have nudged to -133, indicating a slight edge for the Blue Jackets.

Detroit's New Signing Faces a Tough New York Challenge

In another intriguing matchup, the Detroit Red Wings, buoyed by their new signing Patrick Kane, are gearing up to face the New York Rangers. The Rangers, known for their resilience, are unlikely to have consecutive underwhelming performances, especially after their recent setback against Buffalo. Opening as a -185 favorite, New York's odds have surged to -210. Historically, games between these teams have often stayed under the total, with a 24-4-3 record in their last 31 meetings. Despite Detroit's lackluster record in New York (5-11 in their last 16 games), my model suggests potential value in backing the Wings, though the Rangers' strong home performance is a critical factor.

NBA Spotlight: Clippers vs. Kings

Shifting to the NBA, Thursday promises an exciting lineup of 7 games, with the Los Angeles Clippers facing the Sacramento Kings as the highlight. The Clippers are slight favorites, opening at -1.5 on the road, with the line remaining stable. This stability reflects the cautious approach of bookmakers towards the NBA, where betting limits are typically lower and less influenced by early sharp money.

College Basketball: Significant Line Movements

The college basketball scene is bustling, with several noteworthy line movements:

Youngstown State's odds shifted from a pick to -1.5, despite modest betting activity.
Ohio State saw a more substantial move, from -22 to -24.
Northern Kentucky attracted early betting, pushing the line from -5.5 to -7.5. Interestingly, about 90% of the $10k wagered on this game backs Northern Kentucky.
The Tennessee vs. North Carolina game is also drawing attention. Although North Carolina holds 70% of the handle, the line has moved in Tennessee's favor, from +2.5 to -1.5, suggesting a potential upset.

Vanderbilt, initially eyed as a potential underdog at home, opened at -1 and has since been adjusted to -3 across most shops.

Game of the Day: to follow

In an intriguing college basketball matchup, James Madison University (JMU) faces off against the Buffalo Bulls in Virginia. This game presents a unique betting angle, especially regarding the total points.

JMU's Offensive Prowess vs. Buffalo's Defensive Woes
James Madison's basketball team boasts one of the nation's top offenses, a stark contrast to Buffalo's struggling defense. This disparity sets the stage for what appears to be a lopsided contest. JMU's offensive strength, coupled with Buffalo's inefficiency in scoring and defense, tilts the scales heavily in favor of the Dukes.

Home-Court Advantage: A Boost for JMU
The significance of the game being held in Virginia, at the heart of JMU's territory, cannot be understated. Home-court advantage plays a pivotal role in college sports, and in this case, it's expected to further empower the already dominant Dukes. Buffalo, with their less than stellar performance on both ends of the court, is unlikely to muster the firepower necessary to keep up with JMU’s dynamic offense.

Breaking Down the Total: Why Under is the Way to Go
Despite the trend of JMU games going over the total this season (5-0-1), this particular matchup's total of 161 points seems excessively high. The Dukes are expected to contribute a significant chunk of points, but the real question lies in Buffalo’s ability to score. With an offensive efficiency ranking of 316th and averaging just 96.7 points per 100 possessions, Buffalo's scoring capacity is underwhelming. The team relies heavily on just three players for their scoring, none averaging over 15.0 points per game.

Sharp Bettors' Insight
Adding weight to the under prediction, three sharp players at our sportsbook have expressed a strong preference for the under in this game. Their insights, combined with the statistical analysis, paint a clear picture: Buffalo is unlikely to contribute enough to the total to push the game over.

Conclusion
While JMU is expected to dominate, the underwhelming offensive capabilities of Buffalo suggest that the total points will fall short of the 161 mark. A potential scoreline in the 85-60 range is plausible, comfortably keeping the total under. This game, therefore, stands as a prime candidate for bettors looking to wager on the under.