Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 28, 2023

6 months ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: Great start to the week with the under in NY cashing. We got lucky though and I didn't see Buffalo scoring 5 goals. I expected the opposite of that result with the Rangers winning 5-1. Let's get another winner today.

As we delve into today's action-packed sports betting schedule, we find a well-balanced slate across the NHL, NBA, and College Basketball (CBB). Let’s break down some of the notable movements and where the sharp money is going in these games.

NHL: Surprising Line Movements in Key Matchups

In the NHL, the Florida Panthers are up against a challenging back-to-back scenario as they face the Toronto Maple Leafs. Interestingly, the betting line has moved unexpectedly. Despite the Leafs being the tougher opponent, the line shifted from Toronto at -138 to -129 at BetOnline and even lower at -120 at Circa. This movement is contrary to what one might expect given the Panthers’ demanding schedule.

Similarly, the Tampa Bay Lightning are on the road for back-to-back games, and here the line movement aligns more traditionally with what is seen for teams in such situations. The Arizona Coyotes, sharpened by considerable interest from the sharps, saw their moneyline drop from +116 to a more favored position at +101.

NBA: Overnight Activity and Sharp Betting

The NBA betting scene has been bustling overnight. A particularly intriguing game is in Cleveland, where the total has been slammed by the sharps. The under 239 is drawing attention, despite the total climbing up from an opening of 234.5.

The Brooklyn Nets opened as -3 favorites at home against the surging Toronto Raptors. However, sharp money has moved in favor of the Raptors, now at +1.5, signaling belief in the underdog’s potential.

CBB: Where the Smart Money Is

In college basketball, four games are attracting more bets than others. Kentucky has seen a line movement in their favor, shifting from -5 to -7. This suggests growing confidence in the Wildcats’ chances.

Georgia Tech, opening at +10, has garnered significant support despite only attracting 22% of the tickets. They hold 55% of the handle, leading to a line adjustment to +8.5 overnight and further down to +8.

Syracuse opened at a pick against LSU but experienced a late surge in the evening, leading the line to swing to -1.5 in favor of the Orange. As of this morning, 70% of the handle is backing Syracuse.

Lastly, in the game featuring Missouri against Pittsburgh, Missouri’s line improved slightly from +7 to +6.5, although Pittsburgh still commands 85% of the handle.

Game of the day

In today’s game of the day, we're presented with an intriguing matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. While the Timberwolves have recently impressed against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder are coming in with a determination to not only cover the spread but also clinch a victory. Let’s dissect the strengths of both teams before reaching our final verdict.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Rising with Confidence and Efficiency

The Thunder, just a game behind the Timberwolves, are showcasing a remarkable blend of talent and strategy. Their key weapon is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), who is arguably the best player on the court in this matchup. SGA’s prowess, combined with the promising development of Chet Holmgren, particularly from the perimeter, grants OKC a multifaceted offensive threat.

OKC’s significant advantage lies in their offensive efficiency, which is among the league’s best. This attribute particularly enhances their road game, where confidence and momentum play pivotal roles. The young squad's resilience and ability to consistently cover the spread in recent games — in all but one of their last seven — signal a building trend in their favor. The Thunder’s length, crucial in countering Minnesota's size, should not be underestimated.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Defensive Stalwarts with Home Court Advantage

On the other side, the Timberwolves are riding high following their commanding win over the Grizzlies. With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns leading the charge and Rudy Gobert fortifying the defense, Minnesota is a formidable opponent. Their second-place ranking in defensive rating, partly due to Gobert's influence, has made them particularly effective in curbing three-point attempts — a significant aspect given OKC's reliance on perimeter shooting.

The Timberwolves' ability to constrain their opponents to tough mid-range shots has been a cornerstone of their strategy. Additionally, their track record of covering the spread in eight of their last nine home games cannot be ignored. Historically, the Thunder have found it challenging against Minnesota, losing eight of their last nine encounters.

Conclusion and Betting Recommendation

While the Timberwolves have strong defensive capabilities and a significant home-court advantage, the Thunder's offensive efficiency and recent form tilt the scale in their favor. OKC’s ability to adapt and counter Minnesota’s size, combined with their young team's confidence and momentum, especially on the road, positions them well to not just cover the spread but also secure a win.

Despite Minnesota's formidable defense and previous success against OKC, the Thunder’s current form, led by SGA and Holmgren, indicates a readiness to overcome past hurdles. Thus, my recommendation leans towards Oklahoma City to win and cover the +4 spread, capitalizing on their efficient offense and growing trend of resilience in challenging matchups.