Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 27, 2023

6 months ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: Our last game on Friday cashed with the Knicks under 211.5. Let's start the new week with a winner!

In the National Hockey League (NHL), the night has been relatively quiet, with minimal shifts in betting lines. However, a noteworthy move involved the Florida Panthers, who saw their odds shift from -115 to -135 at BetOnline, a prominent market maker. This change indicates a growing confidence in the Panthers among bettors and analysts.

NBA Sees Notable Shifts: Pacers, Pelicans, and Clippers on the Move

In the National Basketball Association (NBA), three significant moves have caught the attention of bettors. First, the Indiana Pacers, set to play tonight, have seen their line move from -10.5 to -12.5 this morning, making them a popular choice among the majority of bettors. The New Orleans Pelicans also experienced a shift, moving from -4 to -5.5 overnight. However, there's a twist in the tale as some recent buyback on the Utah Jazz has brought the line down to -4.5.

Another team to watch is the Los Angeles Clippers. They opened at -4.5 and have climbed to -6 at Circa. Interestingly, a significant 90% of the handle and 77% of the tickets are showing support for the Clippers, suggesting a strong leaning towards their victory in the betting community.

CBB: St. Mary Gains Traction, Lindenwood Lions Make Unexpected Move

The college basketball (CBB) scene presents a perfect-sized slate, although the overall betting volumes have been modest. St. Mary currently leads in betting volume with over 1000 bets, witnessing a shift from -3 to -5.5. This movement is noteworthy, supported by some sharp money as indicated in the sharp report.

On a surprising note, the Lindenwood Lions, a relatively lesser-known team, have seen their odds improve, moving down from +5 to +3.5. This shift suggests an unexpected confidence in the Lions from some bettors.

NFL and Game of the Day: Coverage Coming Up

For those keen on the National Football League (NFL), I will be covering the latest updates in the upcoming "Bottom Line" article.

Tonight's game in New York between the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Rangers is shaping up to be a defensive showcase, making it our game of the day. This matchup comes on the heels of the Rangers' unusual blowout victory over the Bruins this past weekend. However, the focus tonight shifts to the underperformance of the Sabres and the defensive stronghold of the Rangers.

Game of the Day

Sabres Struggling Offensively

The Sabres are currently languishing at the bottom of the league in several key offensive areas, including goals, shots, and power play efficiency. Their lack of positive regression lately signals a continued struggle, especially against a team like the Rangers. Buffalo's offensive metrics do not inspire confidence; they rank 22nd or lower in almost every category. Despite having a balanced lineup, they lack a standout star player who can take control and score decisively. This deficiency will likely hamper their ability to break through the Rangers' defense.

Rangers' Defensive Dominance

On the other side, the New York Rangers have been winning games through their defensive prowess. They have been remarkably effective at limiting their opponents, with an average of just 2.32 goals against them per game. The Rangers excel in goals against (GA), shots on goal against (SOGa), and penalty killing (PK), sitting at the top of the league in these areas. Their defensive discipline and ability to control the game's pace will be crucial against the Sabres.

Predictions for the Game

Given the current dynamics, it's hard to see the Sabres scoring more than two goals in this matchup. Their ability to kill power plays is decent, but if the Rangers get more than one power play opportunity, they are likely to capitalize. The expectation is that the Rangers will secure an easy victory and the game stays under the 6.5 goals.

RECAP: NYRangers under 6.5

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