Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 24, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We had no games to recap from yesterday.

Starting with the NHL, the 15-game slate has seen some interesting shifts. In the Minnesota Wild versus Colorado Avalanche game, the Wild's moneyline has notably dropped from +127 to +113, indicating a growing confidence among bettors. The Philadelphia Flyers have also caught the attention of smart money, with their line moving from +132 to +120. The Los Angeles Kings, facing the Anaheim Ducks, have seen their line shift from -170 to -195, a clear response to the Ducks' recent loss to Montreal.

The NBA is witnessing considerable overnight line changes. The Boston Celtics, facing uncertainties with Holiday and Brown being GTD, saw their line decrease from -6.5 to as low as -4.5 at Circa. The Toronto Raptors, with Lavine also listed as GTD, experienced a rise in their line from -4.5 to -5.5. The New York Knicks' line against the Miami Heat, potentially playing without Robinson and Adebayo, escalated from -4 to -5.5, backed by a substantial 90% of the handle.

In college basketball, the Memphis versus Villanova game stands out. Despite public support for Memphis, the line has swung in Villanova's favor, moving from -1.5 to -3.5. Belmont saw a significant line jump from -4 to -7.5 in their favor. Ohio's line also rose sharply from -2 to -4.5, with overwhelming support from bettors.

College football's 13-game day features several line movements suggesting sharp bets. In the Nebraska game, the total plummeted to 24.5 after early sharp action on the under. Oklahoma's line against their opponent rose from -7 to -9.5, with only 20% of the handle, hinting at sharp interest. Memphis saw their line against their opponent move up from -10 to -13, despite holding only 25% of the handle, indicating a divergence from public betting.

Overall, today's sports betting scene is rich with opportunities, marked by significant line movements and sharp action across various sports. Bettors are encouraged to consider these trends and insights for potentially lucrative betting decisions.

Game of the day:

The under in the New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat game stands out as the highlight, attracting significant attention from sharp bettors. The model indicates value at a projected total of 211.5 points, making this matchup at Madison Square Garden particularly compelling for those eyeing the under.

Defensive Prowess and Slow Pace: A Recipe for Low Scoring

The historical context of these teams' encounters at Madison Square Garden bolsters the case for betting the under. In 18 out of the last 20 meetings at this venue, the total points did not exceed tonight's projected total of 211.5. This trend suggests a continuation of lower-scoring games between the Knicks and Heat.

Both teams have been playing at a slower pace this season, ranking 25th and 29th, which typically results in fewer scoring opportunities. This slow pace, combined with their strong defensive records - the Knicks at 6th and Miami at 8th in defensive rating - further points towards a game where points are hard to come by.

Team Trends Favoring the Under

The Knicks' trend this season reinforces the under bet. In 3 out of 5 home games, the total has stayed under, and overall, they have a 6-8 over/under (O/U) record. Miami mirrors this trend, with more games leaning towards the under, evidenced by their 7-8 O/U record.

Conclusion: Under as the Smart Bet

Given the combination of both teams' strong defensive play, slower pace, and historical trends at Madison Square Garden, betting the under on tonight’s Knicks vs. Heat game appears to be a prudent choice. With the sharp bettors' interest and the statistical model aligning on this view, it seems this game has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair, making the under a compelling betting option. As always, bettors are advised to consider these insights while making informed betting decisions.

RECAP: NY Knicks under 211.5

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