Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 24, 2022

a year ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: The smart money cleaned up last night! We had 2 dogs in the NHL. The Sabres were a walk in the park while the Ducks were a little sweaty but also cashed. The under in Cleveland was never in doubt.

We have no NHL and NBA today.

In the NFL we have a 3 game slate. The over in Detroit is full of square money. It opened at 50.5 and it's at 54.5. We do expect a ton of points but is this total too high at 54.5?

The sharp report is showing sharp money on the Cowboys. The sharps hit the -8 line while it opened at -6.5. Not many were able to get that number since it moved fast.

Earlier in the week, sharp money started coming in on Mississippi State at +3.5 but no one at the book had yet placed a bet. The boys were a little late on this line however overnight a couple of sharps hit the +2.5 line. The total is all over the place and we have sharp money on both sides. The under 63 was hit down to 58.5 and then the over money came in pushing the total back up to 61.

We have a couple of noticeable moves in college basketball. Kansas moved up from -4.5 to -7 this morning and I can see this number going to -7.5 and -8. I have this number at -7 on neutral site therefore the move makes sense. Northwestern received smart money this morning at -1.5 and -2.5 giving the books no choice but to move the number to -3.5. Lastly, the sharp money on Butler opened some value on BYU based on my projections. The money coming in on Butler moved the line from +2 to -1 this morning.

RECAP: The Cowboys, Mississippi State, Kansas, Northwestern, and Butler.

Good luck today

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