Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 21, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: The sharps were on point yesterday. Charlotte didn't just cover the +9.5, they won straight up.

As the NHL takes a break tonight, our attention shifts to a compact yet intriguing NBA slate featuring five games. Notably, line movements have been relatively modest, but the totals have seen significant changes.

In Atlanta, we're witnessing an extraordinary surge in the total. Initially set at 248 at Betonline, it has escalated to a staggering 251.5 this morning. This rise is underpinned by a whopping 95% of the handle betting on the over, indicating strong public expectation for a high-scoring affair.

Conversely, in Phoenix, the scenario is quite different. The total has seen a notable decrease, plunging from 229 to 225 overnight. This 4-point drop suggests a shift in expectations towards a more defensively oriented game.

College Football: Weather and Sharps Influence Totals

The college football scene is buzzing with activity, particularly with two games where the totals have seen notable movements, largely influenced by sharp bets and weather conditions.

In Western Michigan, the total opened at 54 but has since descended to 51.5. Despite 70% of the handle leaning towards the over, the downward shift indicates a strong inclination from sharp money betting on the under, likely factoring in weather influences.

Buffalo's game presents an even more dramatic shift. The total plummeted from an initial 40.5 to 37 on Sunday, and by Monday morning, it further dropped to 35.5. With continuous money coming in on the under, there's a possibility it might close around 34, barring any significant counteraction from the books to balance the over bets.

College Basketball: Defensive Expectations

Shifting gears to college basketball, where there's a vast array of games, the top three wagered games haven't witnessed much line movement. However, a common trend is the favoring of the under in games featuring Purdue, Appalachian State, and Gonzaga. The totals in these games have decreased between 2-3 points, indicating a market expectation for lower-scoring games.

Game of the day

In a fascinating matchup in Orlando, the Raptors and Magic are set to clash in what promises to be a closely contested game. With the sharps leaning towards the Raptors at +2, nudging the line down to +1.5, it’s clear that the betting market is taking notice of Toronto’s defensive prowess, despite their offensive inconsistencies.

Toronto Raptors: Defensive Grit Meets Inconsistent Offense

The Raptors, currently striving to reach the .500 mark, have had their fair share of ups and downs this season. Their defensive tenacity is undeniable, ranking solidly in limiting opponents' scoring. However, their offense, sitting at 21st in adjusted offensive rating (aORTG), has been a mixed bag. The recent rout of the Pistons, featuring a balanced scoring attack with seven players in double-figures, highlighted their potential, albeit against a weaker defense.

Key players like Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and Dennis Schroder are pivotal to Toronto's success. Barnes' impressive season, coupled with Siakam's steady scoring and Schroder's playmaking, gives the Raptors a fighting chance in every game. However, their road record and offensive struggles, particularly in three-point shooting where they rank 27th, raise concerns.

Orlando Magic: Rising Stars and a Stout Defense

Orlando, on the other hand, is surging with momentum, winning three consecutive games and four of their last five. Their newfound depth and improved backcourt play are translating into tangible results. Home-court advantage has been kind to the Magic this season, boasting a 3-1 record with commendable defensive performances.

Players like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are central to Orlando's success, providing consistent scoring and rebounding. The team's defensive rating, leading the NBA by conceding only 106.5 points per 100 possessions, speaks volumes of their growth, especially when contrasted with Toronto’s 110.3.

Betting Perspective: Analyzing Trends and Matchup Dynamics

From a betting angle, this game presents a conundrum. The Raptors, with their experience and defensive edge, are a tempting pick, especially with the line movement indicating sharp money on them. However, Orlando’s home record and superior defensive metrics cannot be overlooked.

The trends also paint a mixed picture. The Raptors have been decent on the road, covering in three of their five away games, and their recent win against the Pistons might give them a confidence boost. Meanwhile, Orlando's impressive home form and defensive prowess make them a solid opponent, especially with their recent track record as home favorites.

Bet Recommendation: Weighing the Odds

When considering a bet, it’s essential to weigh both teams' strengths and recent performances. The Raptors' defensive capabilities and the Magic's rising form and stout home defense make this a tricky pick. However, given Orlando's impressive defensive rating and their solid home form, a slight edge might be given to the Magic, especially if they maintain their trend of strong performances as home favorites.

In conclusion, while the Raptors' experience and recent offensive outburst against the Pistons are noteworthy, the Magic’s consistent home form and defensive superiority could be the deciding factors in this matchup. Bettors might find value in backing the Magic, particularly with their ability to contain opponents' scoring, a critical aspect in closely matched games.

I am not 100% aligned with the sharps in this one!

RECAP: Raptors +2

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