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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 20, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.

RECAP of yesterday's games: No games to review from Friday! Let's get ready for Thanksgiving!! It's going to be a blast in sports betting! May the winners be ours!

Understanding line movements is crucial for bettors looking to gain an edge. Today's betting landscape presents some intriguing shifts across various sports, from the NHL to the NBA and college basketball (CBB). Let's delve into these movements and what they could mean for bettors.

NHL Insights: Bruins vs. Lightning

  • The Boston Bruins are drawing significant attention in their matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Both sharps (experienced bettors) and squares (casual bettors) are heavily favoring Boston.

  • The line movement reflects this trend, with the Bruins moving from -118, capturing 90% of the handle on approximately 1800 wagers. This heavy leaning towards Boston has made the Lightning the underdog favorite for the bookmakers, hoping to balance the money.

NBA Action: Spotting the Value Plays

  • In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans against the Sacramento Kings is a game to watch. The Pelicans opened at +2 but have since moved to +1. This shift is likely due to the Kings playing last night, potentially leading to fatigue, making the Pelicans a value play according to my model.

  • Other notable movements include the Denver Nuggets, who have moved from -8 to -9. Similarly, the Golden State Warriors have seen a shift from -7 to -8.

  • The most significant movement is observed in the Washington game, with the total points line moving from 241.5 to 235 at Betonline. This could indicate expectations of a lower-scoring game than initially anticipated.

College Basketball Focus: Purdue vs. Gonzaga

  • In college basketball, the most wagered game currently is between Purdue and Gonzaga. Purdue opened at -4 at market maker Betonline and has moved to -5, with 90% of the handle backing them. This movement suggests strong confidence in Purdue, despite the lack of other significant line movements in CBB today.

Game of the day:

Tonight's game in Charlotte between the Boston Celtics and the Hornets is shaping up to be a fascinating contest from a betting standpoint. The Celtics, one of the hottest teams in the league, face a Hornets team still struggling to find its rhythm. Here's a deeper look into the dynamics of this game and what bettors should consider.

The Line Movement: The betting line has seen significant movement, with the sharps heavily favoring the Hornets at +9.5, nudging the line down to +9. This shift indicates a belief that the Hornets, despite their struggles, might have an edge against the spread (ATS) .

Team Dynamics: Charlotte's performance this season has been underwhelming, particularly on defense, where they've allowed an excessive number of points. Their lack of consistency, especially from players other than LaMelo Ball, has been a critical issue. On the other side, the Celtics boast a diverse scoring attack and have shown the ability to cover spreads effectively, especially as double-digit favorites.

Key Stats:

  • The Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.

  • The Hornets are 2-5 ATS at home, highlighting their struggles in front of their fans.

Concerns and Considerations: A major concern for Boston is the fact that they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, having narrowly defeated the Grizzlies last night. Fatigue and potential load management could play a role in tonight's game, possibly impacting key players' court time. This scenario might be what the sharps are banking on, giving the Hornets a slight ATS advantage.

While the Celtics have the firepower and the form to dominate the Hornets, especially given Charlotte's defensive woes, the back-to-back situation and the potential for player rest could level the playing field somewhat. Bettors should keep a close eye on any news regarding the Celtics' lineup and load management strategies leading up to the game.

Bet Recommendation: Considering the dynamics at play, a cautious approach would be prudent. If there are indications that key Celtics players might rest or have limited minutes, taking the Hornets with the points (+9) could offer value. However, if Boston fields a full-strength team, their scoring depth and Charlotte's defensive issues could make backing the Celtics to cover a viable option. Always ensure to check the latest updates before placing your bets.

RECAP: Charlotte +9.5

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