Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 16, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: Did anyone catch the Miami-Ohio game? For those who backed Buffalo and aren't yet PRO subscribers, drop me a message on Discord for a free 2-week access to the sharp app! While the sharps leaned towards Buffalo, my conviction was firmly with Miami Ohio. Anyone who saw the game would agree that my bet didn't deserve to come through!

Let;s dive in right away we have a lot to cover!

NBA Insights: OKC and Miami's Total Drop

In the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder opened as a -2.5 favorite, and with a staggering 90% of the handle backing them, it's only a matter of time before we see this line shift. Bettors should keep a close eye on this one.

Down in Miami, the game's total saw a significant drop from 219 to 216.5, likely influenced by Ben Simmons' absence from the Nets. This adjustment suggests a lower-scoring affair than initially anticipated, offering an intriguing angle for under bettors.

CFB Focus: Sharp Action on the Under

Tonight's college football action is also seeing some sharp movements. The total for the game has been bet down from 46.5 to 45.5, backed by 89% of the handle, indicating strong confidence in a lower-scoring game. Additionally, Pittsburgh has seen a notable shift from a -1 favorite to -3 over the week, capturing 72% of the handle.

CBB Neutral Site Battles: Contrarian Line Movements

In college basketball, the three most wagered games are all taking place on neutral sites, yet we're seeing some intriguing line movements. Despite the handle heavily favoring St. John, St. Louis, and Charleston, the lines have moved somewhat contrarily.

St. John's, initially at -4, has moved to -3, while St. Louis saw a more significant shift from -4.5 to -2.5. College of Charleston opened at -2 and, after briefly touching -2.5, settled back at -2. These movements suggest a closer competition than the betting public anticipates, potentially offering value on the underdogs.

In today's sports betting spotlight, we turn our attention to an intriguing Eastern Conference matchup in Miami. The betting sharps, as reported, have made their move on the under 217.5, a shift from the opening total of 219. However, my model pegs this game at a slightly higher total of 218.5, sparking a debate on the game's scoring trajectory. Let's dissect this matchup to see if aligning with the sharps is the right call.

Pace and Performance: The Heat's Scoring Surge

Both the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat are middle-of-the-road in terms of pace, but don't let that statistic alone guide your betting strategy. The Heat's recent performance, particularly in scoring, is noteworthy. Despite a rocky 1-4 start to the season, where they averaged a modest 102.4 points per game, the Heat have found their rhythm, averaging 113.8 points during their six-game winning streak.

A critical factor in this scoring surge has been Jimmy Butler's efficiency. Finishing 10 of 14 from the field in the last game, Butler has been a significant contributor to Miami's offensive prowess. However, it's not just about one player; the team dynamics are equally important. Despite shooting a lackluster 8 of 31 from beyond the arc in their last outing, the Heat have shown they have the firepower to significantly exceed their early-season scoring averages.

Betting on the Over

Despite the sharps leaning towards the under and the potential defensive battle, the current form of the Heat suggests a game that could surpass the total. With their recent scoring surge and the possibility of a fast-paced game, betting on the over seems like a viable strategy, especially if Miami continues to find success from the three-point line. It's too close for me to make this an official play whoever my lean would be the over and I don't really agree with the sharps here.

RECAP: Miami under 217

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