Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 15th

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Our main event this evening will be the Rams vs the Niners in San Francisco. Both the spread and the total have a story to say....

LA Rams vs SF 49ers

One thing is for sure in this game, the books don't want to see this line go back to 3 and if it does it's because they want money on the Rams. This line was first made available on Nov 2nd and a market maker opened the Rams a -3 favourite. That number sat there for a while and then between Nov 7th to Nov 12th the line bounced like a pinball between -3.5 and -4.5 and it finally settled late afternoon on the 12th. It's been steady at -3.5 since then. Injuries have a lot to do with the back and forth in this game. Odell is active, Miller and Ramsey are questionable. Kittle is active while Samuel is questionable. The book is projecting to handle close to 1 million on this game tonight. Currently, the Rams own 81% of the tickets and 79% of the money. We have 2 sets of sharps hitting this game. None of them have played the -3.5 or the +3.5. The battle was on the -+4 or the +4.5. Our betting model has the Rams favourite by 4.

The total slowly climbed from 47 to 50 and some books have posted a 50.5 early this morning. We have a single set of sharps on the over and they hit it at 47, 48,5 and 49. We can see this number reach 51 which is the 2nd highest key total in the last 5 years. Also, the probability of a cover between 47 and 51 is close to 15%. The over owns 61% of the handle and 55% of the tickets. Our betting model has this total set at 48.71. It will all come down to how the Niner's secondaries will stop the Rams receiver core. What side will you be on? Join our free Discord server and join the conversation.

NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lighting

I will have much more interest in watching/following this game than MNF. Crazy eh? But why? It's personal... it's AnthonyP's model vs sharps.... those battles get intense. Our NHL model is projecting the Lighting with a 61% (-155) win probability tonight and sharps are not agreeing with my model. There is a fatigue factor included in this projection, the Islanders are at their 11th game on the road and we saw major signs of fatigue in the last 2 games. Tampa Bay is well-rested. 5dimes opened the Lighting a -143 favourite yesterday morning and immediately lost 10% and is now sitting at -130. None of the sharps at my book are on this game however this move couldn't have been triggered by Square money therefore someone somewhere really likes the NY Islanders. On our end, we have 7.54% EV on Tampa bay at -130 and oddly enough it looks like a contrarian pick since only 45% of the tickets are on the Lighting.

The total is about to break 5.5 and drop to 5. The total opened at 5.5 under -120 and it's been sitting at -140 for a while. We have this game projected at 5.27 therefore the move wouldn't be a surprise for us. The tickets and handle show support on the over however the moneyline on the under is supporting an accumulation of money on the under.

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