Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 15, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We cashed another winner last night with Providence going under the total. By tip off the total was down to 140 versus the 144.5 I posted in the morning.

As we dive into another bustling day in the world of sports betting, it's clear that the sharp report, now showing a remarkable +27 units in November, is a valuable resource for bettors looking to gain an edge. Let's explore the current trends and movements across various sports to identify where the smart money is heading.

NHL: A Quiet Yet Valuable Night

In the NHL, there's a notable quietness, with the smallest moneyline sitting at -161. However, the NHL model is indicating significant value in tonight's games. This detailed analysis will be exclusively available to our pro subscribers later today. Early movements show the Canucks and Oilers moving up by 11% and 9%, respectively.

NBA: Managing the Back-to-Back Challenge

The NBA presents a challenging scenario today with six teams playing on back-to-back nights. This situation often leads to load management strategies, with players either sitting out or seeing reduced minutes. The most significant movement is seen in Chicago, where the Bulls, initially at -3, have dropped to -1 amidst news that Caruso might be out. The Magic, despite playing last night, are expected to maintain their lineup due to their youthful roster.

College Basketball: Top Wagered Games and Line Movements

In college basketball, our focus is on the top 3 to 4 wagered games, including matchups in Duquesne, Charlotte, VCU, and Louisville. Duquesne is currently seeing the highest wagers, with the line moving from -4.5 to -6, indicating heavy backing from the squares. Charlotte witnessed a significant line movement from a 2-point favorite to -6.5, with two sets of sharps showing interest. In Louisville, the action is on Coppin State, prompting a line adjustment from +20.5 to +17.

Final Thoughts

• NHL Bettors: Keep an eye on the NHL model article for valuable insights on tonight's games.

• NBA Strategy: Monitor player statuses closely due to back-to-back games and potential load management.

• College Basketball: Consider the line movements and sharp activities in Duquesne, Charlotte, and Louisville games.

• College Football: The Miami Ohio game total is a key focus, with smart money backing the under while sharps were all over Buffalo.

College Football: Smart Money on Buffalo?

In college football, the total in the Miami Ohio game has caught the attention of smart money, initially opening at 42 and being bet down to 39. This movement is backed by two waves of under money. My college football model, available to PRO subscribers, projects Ohio at -12.07, with the line having moved from -8.5 to -11. This game in Miami Ohio is currently the most wagered across all sports, making it our game of the day. We have a unique set of sharps that took Buffalo at +9.5 and the line is now at +8.5 but my model likes Miami Ohio.

All eyes are on the pivotal MAC East Division clash between the Miami RedHawks and the Buffalo Bulls. This isn't just a game; it's a battle of wits between my model and analysis, which firmly back Miami Ohio, and the sharps who are leaning towards Buffalo at +9.5. Let's delve into the nitty-gritty of why Miami Ohio is the team to watch.

The Stage is Set in Oxford

The RedHawks are not just playing for pride; they're eyeing the East Division title and a coveted spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. Their journey to Detroit hinges on this crucial game. Buffalo, on the other hand, is out of bowl contention but can still play spoiler to Miami's aspirations.

Recent Form: A Tale of Two Teams

Buffalo's recent form has been less than stellar, with three losses in their last four outings, scoring a meager 14 or fewer points in those defeats. Their ATS (Against The Spread) record mirrors this slump, going 1-3 in these games. Conversely, Miami Ohio has been a bettor's dream, covering the spread in eight of their last nine games, including a solid performance against Akron last week.

Home Field Advantage: A Key Factor

Historically, the home team in this matchup has had the upper hand, winning and covering in each of the last six meetings. Miami's home turf at Oxford has been a fortress, and this trend looks set to continue.

Weather and Conditions: Perfect for Football

The clear, calm night in Oxford sets the stage for a classic gridiron battle. With no weather disruptions, both teams can play to their strengths, making for an exciting matchup.

Statistical Breakdown: Defense is the Name of the Game

Both teams have shown strong defensive performances in MAC games. Miami Ohio, in particular, has been impressive, allowing just 4.01 yards per play. Buffalo's offense has struggled, only managing 4.29 yards per play in conference clashes. This defensive solidity from Miami is a key reason why they're favored in this matchup.

Quarterback Conundrum

Miami's Aveon Smith, more of a runner than a thrower, hasn't done well throwing the ball. Buffalo's Cole Snyder is also not at his best, further dampening the Bulls' offensive prospects. This quarterback situation suggests a game dominated by ground attacks and strategic plays rather than aerial fireworks.

Miami Ohio to Prevail

Considering Buffalo's inability to score heavily against top-tier MAC teams and Miami's stout defense, the RedHawks are poised for a comfortable victory. Miami's defense, allowing only 17.1 points per game, contrasts sharply with Buffalo's average of over 28 points conceded per game. Expect a dominant performance from Miami, leading to a win that's not just a victory on the field but also for bettors backing them.

Given the strong defensive records, particularly from Miami, and the quarterback situations on both sides, the smart bet should be is on Miami Ohio to cover the spread but the sharps think otherwise.

Who will be right?

RECAP: Buffalo +8.5

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