Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 14, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We started the week with a win! The Raptors went on a 22-1 run and ended up winning the game. We were on the under and it was an easy cash!

In the ever-evolving world of sports betting, today presents a plethora of action across various leagues, with significant movements particularly in college basketball due to the sheer volume of games. Let's delve into the details, sport by sport.

NHL: Subtle Movements and Key Games

In the NHL, our focus is on a 9-game slate with relatively minor line movements. Notably, the Montreal Canadiens (Habs) are showing value in my NHL model, despite the moneyline trending in the opposite direction. The Calgary Flames, for instance, have seen their opening line at -136 climb to -144, with some sportsbooks even listing them at -155 this morning.

Another game to watch is the Vegas Golden Knights visiting the Washington Capitals. The Capitals' improved play has been recognized by the markets, with Vegas's opening line of -163 dropping to -152, and Circa recently posting -145.

NBA: Adjustments and Injuries

Moving to the NBA, several line adjustments are being made, largely due to player injuries. Detailed analysis of these changes will be covered in the NBA model article for PRO subscribers.

Key games to note include the Philadelphia 76ers, who opened at -7.5 but saw the line drop to -6 amid uncertainty over Joel Embiid's status. If Embiid is out, expect a further 1.5 to 2-point drop in the line.

In Detroit, the Atlanta Hawks started as a 7-point road favorite, which has since decreased to -4. This shift is contingent on Trae Young's questionable status; his participation could push the line back up.

The Los Angeles Clippers have struggled with James Harden in the lineup, leading to a potentially inflated opening line against the Denver Nuggets. Despite money flowing towards Denver, the line has moved from -6.5 to -4.5. Sharp interest has been confirmed on the Clippers at +6.5, as detailed in the sharp report for PRO subscribers.

Regarding game totals, most have dropped, with a notable decrease in Charlotte from 227 to 223.5, attributed to injuries on both teams.

College Football: Focused Movements

In college football, we have three games on the docket. Apart from the game in Northern Illinois, which has seen significant action, the other matchups have been relatively quiet. Northern Illinois opened at -3 and, at one point, held 90% of the handle, pushing the book to move off the key number to -3.5. The line eventually settled at -5 yesterday afternoon, indicating a balancing of action.

College Basketball: Dynamic Swings

The swings in college basketball betting are particularly volatile. The top three wagered games are at Michigan State, Kansas, and Providence. In Providence, sharp action on the under has driven the total down from 147.5 to 144.5.

Both Michigan State and Kansas are playing at neutral sites, with Duke moving from -3.5 to -4 behind 77% of the handle. Kansas has seen a shift from -4.5 to -6.

Game of The Day:

Our spotlight shines on what has emerged as the third most wagered game at the book as of 9am EST. The matchup between Providence and Wisconsin is drawing significant attention, particularly for those eyeing the game total, which has seen substantial movement.

The Movement Towards the Under

Initially set at 146.5, sharp bettors have heavily favored the under, driving the total down to 144.5 across most markets. This trend is supported by a whopping 87% of the handle and 76% of the tickets, indicating a strong consensus among bettors.

Analyzing Team Performances

Wisconsin's season opener against Arkansas State showcased their offensive prowess, with an impressive 65 percent shooting from the field and a solid 50 percent from beyond the arc. However, their subsequent game against Tennessee painted a different picture. Despite a decent start, the Badgers struggled to close the gap in the second half, ultimately falling 80-70.

Providence, on the other hand, has enjoyed a smoother start with two fairly comfortable victories. Their opening game against Columbia and the follow-up against Milwaukee both featured strong first halves and efficient scoring. However, it's important to note their latest performance against Milwaukee, where their shooting cooled down to 39.4 percent from the field.

Tempo and Defensive Play

A key factor in this matchup is the tempo at which Providence plays. Currently ranked 193rd in tempo, averaging 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes, they are not a team that pushes the pace aggressively. This slower style could significantly influence the game's total score.

Wisconsin, coming off a loss where they allowed Tennessee to dictate the pace, is likely to revert to a more controlled, defensive style of play. Away from home, they'll be keen to avoid another high-scoring affair and focus on strong defense and pace control.

Trends and Game Expectations

Historical trends also favor the under. Providence has seen four of their last five games go under the total, suggesting a pattern that might continue in this matchup. Given both teams' recent performances and strategic inclinations, a lower-scoring game seems probable.

Betting Recommendation: The Under on Game Total

Considering the sharp movement towards the under, combined with the teams' recent performances, tempo, and historical trends, betting on the game total going under 144.5 appears to be a prudent choice. Expect a game focused more on defense and controlled pace, especially from Wisconsin, who will be eager to avoid a repeat of their high-scoring loss to Tennessee.

As always, stay updated on any last-minute changes in team lineups or other factors that could influence the game's dynamics. But for now, the under on 144.5 seems like a solid bet for this anticipated matchup in Rhode Island.


RECAP: Providence under 144.5

Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP20 and get 20% off for life.

Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.