Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 13, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers, summarizing overnight developments. Updates throughout the day keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: I hope you all had a great weekend and that you were able to grow your bankroll. On our last edition, we didn't have a game so there is no recap.

In today's edition of the Overnight Grind, we delve into the intriguing world of line movements across various sports, while I will cover Monday Night Football (MNF) in the Bottom Line article. Alongside this, we have a relatively light schedule in major sports, featuring two NHL games, four NBA games, and a decent slate in college basketball (CBB).

NHL Insights: A Quiet Front with Sharp Bets on the Kraken

The NHL scene is relatively subdued today. However, there's an interesting development where the sharps are favoring the Seattle Kraken, while the general betting public, or the 'squares', are leaning towards the Colorado Avalanche. This has led to a peculiar scenario where the bookmakers are rooting for the Avalanche, a rare alignment of the squares and the book. Initially, Colorado opened at -150 at Betonline, but this has since nudged down to -144, indicating a slight shift in betting patterns.

NBA Action: Sharps Making Early Moves

In the NBA, the sharps have identified three key spots this morning, though these haven't significantly impacted the lines. If you want to see those spots you need to be a PRO subscriber. In the meantime, in Boston, the total points opened at 224 at Circa and 220.5 at Betonline, settling now at 222.5, which aligns with the initial predictions. The Toronto Raptors saw their opening at -8.5 at Circa and -10 at Betonline, with the line evening out at -9.5.

A notable trend is seen in Sacramento, where the 'under' is gaining traction. Both market makers set the total at 224, but it's dropped to 221. In Milwaukee, early movements suggest that Damian Lillard should be playing, as evidenced by the Bucks' line shifting from -8 to -9 this morning.

College Basketball: Where the Smart Money Is

Turning our attention to college basketball, the top three wagered games involve St Johns, Purdue, and Middle Tennessee State, with some significant line movements observed.

• St Johns: Adjustments are being made to both the total and the line. St Johns has moved from -2 to -2.5, and the total points have risen from 152.5 to 155.5.

• Purdue: Despite no sharp interest at the book, external factors are driving the line, with Purdue moving from -15.5 to -18. Xavier is currently holding 80% of the handle on 1500 tickets.

• Middle Tennessee State: The host is dominating the handle, prompting a line shift from -4.5 to -6.5.

The Central Arkansas Anomaly

Perhaps the most intriguing movement is in the Central Arkansas game. The Bears opened at -4.5 on Sunday night but saw a rapid decline to -3 within the first hour. By early morning, the line continued to plummet, reaching -2.5, then -1, and eventually settling at +1.5. Given that the risk max limit on this game at Betonline is $275, such a dramatic shift indicates that the sharps are repeatedly hitting this number, showcasing their confidence in the underdog.

As we gear up for tonight's MNF in Buffalo and other major sporting events, these line movements offer a fascinating glimpse into the minds of sharp bettors and the general betting public. The dynamics in NHL, NBA, and college basketball betting circles provide not just insights for potential bettors but also a captivating narrative for sports enthusiasts and analysts alike. As always, these movements are subject to change, and it's crucial for bettors to stay informed and agile in their betting strategies.

In today's NBA matchup, the focus is on the Toronto Raptors as they face off against the Washington Wizards. The betting community, particularly the sharps, are eyeing a promising opportunity, setting their sights on the under 228. This decision is rooted in the confidence in Toronto's robust defense, currently ranked 7th in the league, which is expected to stifle the Wizards, especially considering their back-to-back game schedule.

The Case for the Under Bet

The rationale behind the under bet is multi-faceted:

1. Raptors' Defensive Prowess: Toronto's defense has been formidable this season, ranking 7th in adjusted Defensive Rating (aDRTG). This strength is anticipated to be a key factor in limiting the Wizards' scoring potential.

2. Wizards' Back-to-Back Struggle: Playing on consecutive nights is always a challenge in the NBA, and the Wizards are feeling the brunt of it. Their performance last night, where they managed only 94 points against the Brooklyn Nets (14th in aDRTG), doesn't bode well for their offensive prospects against a stronger Raptors defense.

3. Offensive Challenges: While the Raptors are not the highest-scoring team, ranked 21st in adjusted Offensive Rating (aORTG), they are expected to find some rhythm against the Wizards' weaker defense. However, this doesn't necessarily translate to a high-scoring game, given the defensive dynamics at play.

Key Players and Strategies

The Raptors' defense, spearheaded by Scottie Barnes, is a critical component of their game plan. Barnes, leading the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocked shots, is poised to be a significant obstacle for the Wizards, particularly in their perimeter game. His all-around defensive capabilities are expected to play a pivotal role in this matchup.

On the other side, the Wizards are not just struggling offensively but are also hampered on defense. They currently have the weakest defense in the NBA, allowing an average of 126.5 points per game, and opponents are shooting 50.8% against them. This statistic places them at the bottom of the league defensively, which could be a factor in keeping the game's total score lower than expected and there is a risk for this total to go to the wire.

Impact of Injuries

Injuries also play a part in this equation. The Wizards will be missing Delon Wright, a guard who is a key defensive player. Wright leads the Wizards in steals and is known for his disruptive presence on the court. His absence could mean less pressure on the Raptors' offense, potentially allowing them to control the game's pace more effectively.

As the Raptors and Wizards prepare to face off, the betting lines suggest a game dominated by defense, particularly from the Toronto side. The combination of the Raptors' defensive strength, the Wizards' fatigue from back-to-back games, and the strategic gaps caused by injuries, all point towards a game where scoring could be at a premium. Bettors and fans alike will be watching closely to see if the under 228 bet holds true, in what promises to be a defensively charged contest similar to what we saw in Brooklyn yesterday.

RECAP: Raptors under 228.5

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