Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 31, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: We only had one game yesterday and the Twins didn't disappoint. I expected more of an offensive game from them but Greinke did well enough and avoided a disaster. The Twins won 2-0 with fantastic pitching from Lopez and the bullpen allowing only 2 hits.

An abundance of sharp money has entered the NBA today, with one game, in particular, garnering attention in the sharp report last night: the under in the Philadelphia matchup. BetOnline initially set the total at 228, but the first indication of sharp money in the book came at 226.5. The total has since dropped to 224.5, with bet limits are at $10,000 at Pinnacle, but remaining at $5,000 at both BetOnline and Bookmaker.

In recent weeks, both the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers have been demonstrating impressive defensive prowess, making for an intriguing matchup as they face off. Toronto currently ranks 4th in defense over the last two weeks, allowing just 110 points per 100 possessions, while Cleveland comes in at 6th, permitting 111 points per 100 possessions. As both teams also boast top-10 offenses, it will be interesting to see how close the game gets to the projected total.

The smart money is leaning towards the under in this matchup, primarily due to Toronto's current struggles with some of their star shooters. The Raptors' starting lineup is experiencing a shooting slump, with players such as Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes not shooting well, and Pascal Siakam hitting under 33% percent from beyond the arc. Fred VanVleet is also having the worst shooting year of his career, with a sub-35 percent conversion rate, leaving OG Anunoby as the only reliable three-point threat.

Despite their shooting woes, Toronto has managed to stay competitive thanks to their strong defense. The Raptors have held opponents to 104 points or fewer in their last three games, including a mere 92 points allowed against the Miami Heat. With Joel Embiid guarding the paint for the Cavaliers and the Raptors' shooting struggles, it's unlikely that Toronto's offense will find much success in this game.

Betting trends also support the under in this contest. The under is 7-0 in the 76ers' last seven games on one day's rest, 6-1 in their last seven home games, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Philadelphia. Furthermore, the under has hit in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams.

As the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers face off, expect a defensively charged battle with both teams putting up a strong fight. The game's projected total may be hard to reach due to Toronto's shooting difficulties and the defensive prowess displayed by both teams. Keep an eye on the under, as recent betting trends support this outcome.

It's weird to see smart money on the Houston Rockets but it happened!

In an encounter between two of the NBA's weakest offenses and defenses, the Detroit Pistons face the Houston Rockets in a match that has piqued the interest of bettors. Surprisingly, Detroit boasts an impressive 7-0 ATS record in their last seven meetings in Houston and a 9-1 ATS record in the last ten matchups.

Although the Pistons have lost nine of their last ten games straight up, they have managed to defy expectations by covering their last two games against Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks. On the other hand, the Rockets are on a seven-game losing streak, during which they have allowed an average of 126 points per game. This poor performance is reflected in their 2-5 ATS record during the streak.

It's noteworthy that smart money initially targeted the Rockets at -4.5 on low limits. However, with the betting model currently valuing this game at -5.5, there appears to be no significant value in placing a bet on this match.

In a season marked by disappointment, both the Pistons and the Rockets are simply trying to make the best of their remaining games. The Pistons have been plagued by injuries, with Cunningham sidelined in the first month and several other players missing significant time throughout the season. However, the silver lining for both teams is the valuable experience gained by their young players during this trying period.

In this matchup, the Rockets hold a few key advantages, including being the healthier team and having the benefit of playing on their home court. The Pistons have struggled on the road this season, with a 7-30 record, and their numerous injuries make it challenging to envision a victory for them in this game.

As a result, the edge goes to the Houston Rockets, who are poised to secure a hard-earned win at home and complete a season sweep over the Detroit Pistons.

To recap: Toronto under 225, Houston -5.5

Good luck today

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