Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 31, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Sharps had a rough night yesterday overall. In the NBA they got killed! The Jets needed overtime to beat the Sabres and they got that one right. In Vancouver, as per my write-up, we did see Husson starting and I had wagered on the under while the sharps were expecting Binnington and slammed Vancouver. My under looked great after the first but the second period killed it with 5 goals. Thanks, ASSHOLES! Also, the Blues won and the sharps were wrong on the Canucks. The Pelicans were never close of covering that big number on the road and trailed most of the first half. They won by 10 and they didn't cover the closing number however some sharps that slammed the -10 at opening pushed their bet.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

A very interesting matchup in Minnesota between 2 top-tier teams. The Wild are on a 7 game winning streak and they will look to extend it versus the Pens that just lost another bad one to the Rangers. The Wild have been very consistent offensively this season and their defensive play has been outstanding allowing 2 goals or under per game in their last 5. The Pens are regressing at the wrong time, the standings are tight and they have lost 3 of their last 5. Minnesota is the least disciplined team averaging close to 11 minutes of penalties per game and where special teams might make the difference in this game tonight they can't allow Pittsburgh too many PP opportunities. Sid and the gang have lost 4 of their last 5 when being an underdog but the sharps are on the Pens. Market makers opened the Wild at -135 Wednesday afternoon and sharps immediately sided on the Pens and the line moved down to -107. My NHL model has the Wild at -133 with an +EV of +8%. I disagree with the sharps, everything is clicking for the Wild and it's not the same case for the Pens.

For the rest of the games in the NHL there was barely any traction overnight and early this morning from the sharps. New Jersey went from +256 to +205 and it's normal since this always happens. I need to find that sharp that constantly bets on them. In their last 22 games, the Devils line always dropped. The over 6 in New York (islanders) moved to 6.5 but not all books have adjusted. Playing the over on Columbus is one of the most popular bets in Hockey since the start of the season. We covered the Wild game but overnight the over received some interest and the book moved the total to 6.5 which is in line with my model projection of 6.41. The Flames went from -225 to -275. The adjustment was necessary based on the Kings that played last night and went in OT. Also, Petersen is starting and he's allowed 12 goals in his last 3 games, might be a long night for him tonight.

CLEVELAND / ATLANTA OVER

The Cavs and Mavs ruined my night yesterday. I was on the under and they ended up playing a super high tempo game a la Minnesota and scored 232 points. That wasn't expected from 2 teams that play a low-tempo type of game. Tonight the Cavs are in Atlanta, playing a b2b game where they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and the over is 4-9-0 in their last 13 with no rest. The Cavs are better defensively than what we've been seeing from them in the last 10-15 games but FFS giving up 120 pts to Dallas they will need a miracle to contain Young and the Hawks offense that's been scoring on average 130 pts per game in their last 3 games. Market makers opened this total at 220.5 late last night and we didn't see much traction until early this morning when the sharps slammed the 220.5, 222 and 224 forcing the book to jump the total to 226.5 with 90% of the handle on the over. Someone asked me once why doesn't the book just adjust the total from 220.5 to 226.5 right away and that was a good question. There are 2 reasons, the book opened their lines/totals on low max bet limits, therefore sharps will need to repeatedly bet that low max bet limit and the book adjust on the go until they finally stop hitting the number. At that point. the book settles for the new number, waits for a little and then opens the max bet limits knowing that the sharps won be slamming that number. My NBA model has the total set 224 and supports the move on the over.

In other games, only the game in Brooklyn shows a significant move on the over going from 238.5 to 242.5. No sharps are at the book are on this game however someone somewhere made a big move on the over. At the book, 58% of the handle is on the under however 75% of the tickets are on the over so it kinda contradicts what we are seeing at my book.


Good luck today

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