Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 28, 2023

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: The Pistons and OKC turned into a defensive game after all. I'm surprised with OKCs offense not showing up. The Caps lost in OT. We had a chance there but it was one of those days!

Today we welcome the new MLB season and the smart money has been busy overnight and this morning.

When betting on baseball, it's important to consider several factors to make informed decisions. Here are some key aspects to examine:

Starting Pitchers: The starting pitcher has a significant impact on the outcome of the game. Look at their recent performance, win-loss record, earned run average (ERA), strikeouts, and walks. Also, consider their history against the opposing team and in the specific ballpark. I tend to give them 2-3 starts before updating my betting model.
Bullpen: A strong bullpen can make a big difference in close games. Analyze the performance of the relief pitchers, taking into account their ERA, save percentage, and recent usage. This might be huge this year with the new clock.
Team Offense: Look at the team's batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored. It's important to consider the team's recent offensive performance as well, as this can indicate current form.
Head-to-head history: Some teams may have a historical advantage over others, so it's worth checking past matchups between the two teams to see if any trends emerge.
Home vs. Away Performance: Home-field advantage can play a role in baseball, so take note of how well each team performs at home and on the road.
Weather conditions: Wind, temperature, and precipitation can all impact the game. For example, strong winds blowing out could lead to more home runs, while cold temperatures might reduce offensive production.
Injuries: Injuries to key players can have a significant impact on a team's performance. Be sure to check injury reports before placing a bet.
Line movement: Keep an eye on the betting lines as they move in response to public action and sharp bettors. This can provide insight into which side may have an advantage.
Streaks and recent form: Teams can get hot or cold during the season, so it's important to consider their recent performance and whether they're on a winning or losing streak.
Advanced statistics: Sabermetrics can provide a deeper understanding of player and team performance. Look at statistics like Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to gain additional insights.

Fangraphs is my best friend during the MLB season!

At the moment, all the sharp sportsbooks are keeping their limits quite low, and we haven't witnessed a deluge of cash pouring in just yet. Nevertheless, the smart money has zeroed in on three games, according to the sharp report.

While most retail sportsbooks initially opened the Twins around the -130 mark, BetOnline opened the line at -110 a couple of days ago. Since then, we've seen the odds swing in favor of the Twins, moving to -135 and reaching -155.

Minnesota boasts a powerhouse team on paper, and they owned Greinke last season, winning in four out of the five games he started. The Twins are poised to dominate in starting pitching, offense, defense, and bullpen. While the Royals may have a fighting chance with their offense and baserunning, especially on home turf, it's hard to envision their bullpen standing strong once Greinke is yanked from the game. Buckle up and prepare to cheer on the Twins as they cruise to their season-opening win!

Last season, starting pitcher Zack Greinke faced a tough challenge against the Twins, with an 0-4 record in 24.1 innings, conceding 16 runs (11 earned) on 35 hits, accompanied by six walks and 12 strikeouts. Although the Royals have a gem in Salvador Perez, he finished the season terribly but this is a new season. To make matters worse, KC's bullpen was one of the worst with an ERA of north 4.50 ERA.

The Kansas City Royals may be a team on the rise, but they're no match for the star-studded Minnesota Twins. Zack Greinke has consistently been hammered by the Twins' explosive lineup in recent years, and Pablo Lopez holds the pitching advantage as the Royals' hitters are yet to face him. With heavy hitters like Correa, Byron Buxton, and Joey Gallo in their lineup, the Twins are set to unleash a barrage of offensive firepower. Minnesota has won 12 of their last 17 encounters against the Royals!

To recap: Minnesota -149

Good luck today

Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP20 and get 205 off for life.

Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.