Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 8, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The under 5.5 in Tampa did hit -135 as expected and the game did go under. Sharps weren't on this game but I hope you followed the free recommendation on the under. The 2 games we covered yesterday with sharp interest were the Marlins and the over. Halfway thru the game, it was 10-0 for Miami and we knew the sharps nailed both plays.

We have no hockey tonight however basketball is back. Sharps have been on the under since the end of game 2. Ceasars opened the total at 215.5 and it was instantly hit. Betonline opened their total at 213 and received 60% of the handle on the under and lowered their line to 212.5. Our IA model and my personal model are aligned with the total which is projected at around 210-211. At 215.5 there was definitely value on the under. Game 2 turned into a disaster for the Celtics. They had close to 20 turnovers and Smart/Horford combined for 4 pts!!! YES, 4 FREAKING POINTS!!! In Boston, I expect defense to be the #1 priority for the Warriors and Boston will have HCA to fuel them when they make big defensive plays. However, will that be enough to stop Curry? If the Celtics get enough production from their secondary scoring chances are that this game can go over just like in game 1. I want to lean with the sharp money and support the under but I think ill just sit this one out.

An interesting total the sharps are on this morning is the over 9 in Cincinnati. The sharp report has 2 more plays early this morning. The Reds scored 21 runs in the 2 first games of this series and hold the 4th best wRC+ in the last 7 days. My model has this game at 10.2 with Kelly and Minor starting. Both pitchers have WHIPS of over 1.30. Ok Minor just pitched one game but got destroyed by the Nationals giving up 3 HR in 4 innings pitched. Arizona is flat out terrible vs LHP, with a BA of close to .200, ISO of .120 and second worst wRC+ of 73 however should be able to get to Minor. Kelly will allow 3 runs per game on a regular basis but got slammed by the Dodgers when they were super hot which is something similar to the Reds right now. Both bullpens can get some early action in this game and that is a good thing for the over based on how both BPs are. Just keep an eye on the weather since rain is expected.

Good luck today

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